YOUR MONEY

The Sword of Damocles -- times 2

The EU continues to spiral into dangerous territory. 

Spain and Greece officially have some 25% unemployment.  Greece is still trying to ‘cut back on spending’ to meet more bailout requirements and now Cyprus is revealed to be in the same boat – supposedly as its bank became insolvent after lending heavily to Greece.  Remember that euphemism -  ‘the haircut’,  which the EU imposed on lenders to Greece, so that they only got back some 25 cents on the dollar (calculated in U.S. and Canadian terms.)!

So Cyprus may have a valid point – in part.

Hungary and other eastern European states are also rumored to be needing bailouts and Germany has only so much money and cannot save the entire EU even if it wanted to -- and it doesn’t!

Meanwhile, nationalistic fascist or neo-Nazi parties are gaining support across Europe: Jobbik in Hungary and Golden Dawn in Greece and there are many other such groups rising in popularity in 12 of Europe’s countries (as outlined by Wikipedia under neo-Nazi parties).

So, the toxic mix of high unemployment, rising taxes (or the collection of taxes that were long avoided), fear and anger, and looking for scapegoats other that one’s own spendthrift socialist governments – is creating stresses that echo those of the Depression years of the 1930s -- which  led to the rise of Mussolini and Hitler.

Will history repeat itself in Europe?   

I don’t know, but prolonged ‘austerity’ mixed with high unemployment are surely the ‘kindling’ for such a bonfire of hate, racism, war and genocide.

 

TECHNOLOGY and MEDIA  

Oh how we North Americans delude ourselves!

The United States may be the world leader in patents and prides itself on the ingenuity and innovation its capitalist economy, but at least in the world of electronics, North America is really the tail of the dog, not its head!

Think Nintendo Wii and Sony PlayStation.  Think flat panel TVs.  And think QR codes and NFC!!!

QR codes, those now ubiquitous advertising square boxes with lines and ink blots is the bar code of the future and invented by TOYOTA,  to track parts in its Japanese auto plants (see Wikipedia).

And now, Canada and the U.S. are introducing ‘new’ NFC technology that allows smart phones to wirelessly communicate with various vending machines and other devices to instantly make purchases and payments.    No money or credit card/debit card needed.

This ‘revolutionary’ way of paying is lauded in a full 4 page ad in the Globe and Mail, Nov.8, 2012, MC 1-4, with partner companies prominent in the photos.

Too bad that NFC, i.e., near field communication technology, is OLD news in the Far East and Europe!  In 2006 Nokia, Philips and Sony set up the NFC standard and the Nokia 6131, released in 2006, was the first phone to offer it (according to Wikipedia).  In the 6 years since, the technology has become standard on some 75 phone models worldwide, including Blackberries and even the Google Nexus 7 tablet (see full list at www.nfcworld.com/nfc-phones-list) !!!

Scenes of Japanese teenagers buying from vending machines using this technology is a common sight.

While Apple is glorified and its new iPhone 5 is the darling of the general North American media press, it is a disappointment to many who prefer the fine tune adjustments the Samsung Galaxy phones offer.  To them, the iPhone is like a good point and shoot camera while Samsung and others are selling ‘professional’ level equipment for the same price – or even less. And the iPhone 5 does NOT have NFC capability!

So much for American technological leadership!!!  

So much for Apple leadership!!!

 

P.S.  And don’t even ask me about chip cards. North America has only recently introduced them for banking purposes, but that is old hat in much of the world. In Indonesia and elsewhere you get ONE CARD to replace the various and incomplete I.D., driver’s, SIN or Green card, health, hospital, insurance cards, etc. that we carry around.  A smart card can hold all this and more – including one’s allergic reactions and full, updatable medical history that any doctor or emergency first responder can scan and call up!!!!

Again, North America is dragging its feet and lags behind the rest of the modern world!!!

MEDIA and YOUR MONEY

Oops, the cat is out of the bag – times 2

This last few days has been surprising as two closely guarded economic ‘secrets’ have been let out of the bag!

EU 

This week the EU’s official statistics agency, Eurostat, reported that the 17 member EU has had two negative quarters with a reduction of 0.1% and now 0.2% - meeting the standard definition of a (new) recession.  However, as Barrie McKenna and Eric Reguly have pointed out in the Globe and Mail business section, November 16, 2012, B1 “In euro zone, the return of recession bites like depression” , the Eurostat’s current and preceding reports have been highly misleading.  If Germany is pulled out of the 17 nation calculations, Europe has been in recession for 5 quarters or 1 1/4 years!!!!

This last FACT has been hidden by the EU and North American media and business reporting until now.  We have heard and seen news on government austerity, higher unemployment among government staff and protests in the streets, but the steady and ongoing decline in the overall economy , the recession/depression element, has been well covered up for over a year!!!!

 

China

Communist states, be they the Soviet Union, North Korea, Cuba or China, lie about their economic growth and success all the time, and as they have absolute media control they get away with it far more than western governments do.

Communist targets for improved production have been exaggerated  from Lenin’s first 5 year plan onward as the Party, to stay in power, must continually promise ‘good news’ to its people; and to proclaim communism’s superiority to the outside world.  

Consequently, I have never trusted China’s official government data even after China embraced a mixed economy with strong capitalist elements.

That is why two recent media items are so important.  Gordon Chang of Forbes.com, while interviewed last week on TVO’s the Agenda regarding China’s changing-of-the-guard leadership convention, mentioned in passing that the recently announced Chinese economic growth of 7%  is really 1% or less- based on electricity use data he has access to. 

The same picture of a struggling Chinese economy on the verge of recession was also presented in a CBC National news report of November 14, 2012.   The segment by Adrienne Arsenault entitled “China’s Chill” is available at CBCnews.ca. While the first half focuses on the centrally planned, ghost city of Ordos in Inner Mongolia, which at least 4 year years after its construction is still devoid of people, let alone the planned 1,000,000 residents (See Google, Ordos ghost city for reports and YouTube videos), the second half is a tour of the Beijing  industrial zone with an economist.  He shows Ms. Arsenault how he tracks China’s real growth: by looking at the supply of coal in storage and its local selling price, and the amount and condition of steel pipes and beams at a local factory.  In both cases, the news is bad:  the price of coal has dropped (due to less demand) and manufactured pipes and beams sit untouched and turning to rust.  

 So, those in the know, who do not rely on self-serving Chinese government numbers and who look to independent sources for economic evidence – such as electricity use, coal costs and factory surplus goods, find China is close to or already in negative growth – i.e., recession.

China depends on world demand -  Europe and North America in particular – to buy most of its factory output, and it is in trouble as the western world cannot afford to buy as of old.

And Canada, which has been relying more and more on China to buy its raw resources – from lumber to coal to copper to oil – should also take note and expect Chinese purchases to drop.  According to Ms. Arsenault, it could mean a whopping hit to Canada’s resource based economy!

YOUR MONEY

America - Do what I say, not what I do

 The United States government has been endorsing the austerity programs implemented in Britain and imposed on the near bankrupt countries of Europe: the PIIGS of Portugal, Italy, Iceland, Greece and Spain, and now Cyprus, with Hungary and possibly Latvia and Estonia soon to follow.  European governments are told that they cannot continue to spend excessively more that they get in revenues.  Belts must be tightened and taxes increased and collected!  Central banks and the IMF cannot be expected to provide free bailouts!

Most Americans have watched the ongoing European crisis with a smug smile. After all, the American ethics of self-reliance and distrust of big government have saved the U.S. from such socialist government disasters.

But has it?

Today, the talk on Wall Street and Main Street is about the U.S.  ‘fiscal cliff’ set for January 1, 2013.  On that day, , by a set of laws enacted in 2011, called the Budget Control Act, the U.S. government’s federal budget for 2013 is to be AUTTOMATICALLY cut and taxes AUTOMATICALLY increased (by almost 20%) for a total ‘savings’ of 600 billion dollars U.S.

The feared outcomes include a new recession and higher unemployment. And everyone is hoping that some compromise between Democrats and Republican,  and that President Obama can ‘work out a deal’ to soften if not eliminate the Budget Control Act measures. 

What Americans want, put simply, is to delay or reduce the pain and keep the dream of the ‘good life’ intact.

But while Americans do not live in a socialist European style fantasy, they still live in a country and under governments that have so mismanaged their accounts that they also are at or near bankruptcy!  Think California, whose citizens passed a referendum to INCREASE STATE TAXES!

Between Bernanke printing money on the fly in what is calls “Quantitative Easing” and  governments spending way beyond revenues – for years on end – the U.S. has hit the same financial wall as many countries in Europe!!

Just go to the website, www.usdebtclock.org which uses official government data and see how bad it is - federally and by state (top left tab).  At this moment, the U.S. national debt is a whopping $51,656.00 for every single U.S. citizen and $141,752 FOR EACH TAXPAYER!

Even with prime interest rates at 1% or so, that is an unmanageable debt and a crisis.

And heaven help the U.S.A. if world investors smarten up and no longer buy American bonds and Treasuries at well below real inflation rates. 

While this makes me sound like a Tea Party member or right wing Republican,       I am neither, but the truth cannot be hidden any longer!

                                                               + + + + + +

So, Americans, if President Obama were honest with you, you would be told what is being heard in Europe.  

 

Our government(s) cannot continue spending at this pace and our taxes are way too low to cover the bills.  We too must do what Europe is doing, because we too have been fiscally irresponsible and the day of reckoning will soon be upon us.

The 2011 Budget Control Act is the truth, and what must be done!

 

 

 

 

TECHNOLOGY

The typewriter lives on!

I now regularly hear experts in education and media gurus proclaim (or bewail) the technological trends of the last 5 to 10 years that, they claim, are returning our society to an audio- visual based culture, rather than the text/print culture that has created the civilized world ever since cuneiform, hieroglyphics and the alphabet. Gutenberg and Marshall McLuhan The Gutenberg Galaxy, are no longer relevant to our world’s future.

According to them, talk on cell phones has replaced writing letters, YouTube videos have supplanted manuals and books for enjoyment, and tablets will soon displace desktop PCs, Macs and laptops – ending the reign of the keyboard.

I am sure many kids today have no idea what a typewriter is or was, and may well have never seen one.  They know of keyboards on computers and laptops , but, so say  the pundits, will soon no longer need these archaic add ons as tablets and smart phones go well beyond the written/printed word.

* * * * * * * *

Yes, today’s youth are cell phone addicts and facebook and social media are how most young people spend their time: both free-time and even when in class or at work.

But Mankind’s love of writing is not going away.  It’s too fast and convenient, and a more or less ‘assured’ method of communicating one’s thoughts  – and kids know it. 

That is why text messaging has replaced cell phone chat and voice messages for most young people. They know their friends are not at their phones 24/7 and someone might  pretend not to have gotten a voice mail. But text messages are ‘guaranteed messaging’ that cannot be ignored.

The skyrocketing of Twitter is further proof of mankind’s love of and the power of the written word.  One tweet and you can sound off to almost everyone on the planet!  Granted 140 characxters does not allow for long ‘speeches’ and great detail, but they do force people to think, and write concisely and clearly.   Think epigram or haiku!

It is therefore noteworthy that Microsoft, in entering the computer hardware world decided to add a real keyboard to its tablet, the Surface.  Microsoft knows that a keyboard that is actually quick and easy to use cannot be replaced. 

And the reviving Research in Motion has just announced the January 30. 2013 launch of its newest BlackBerry handsets and BlackBerry 10 system.  RIM, after all, is the company that added a full QWERTY keyboard to a phone and made everyone’s phone typing oh so much faster.

 

So, typing and keyboards are not disappearing any time soon, if ever, and the crystal balls pundits have been using need a good cleaning.

 

 

P.S.   If you don’t know, the QWERTY keyboard, which gets its name from the first 5 letters at the top left of the letter keys, is not an intuitive or alphabetical layout and takes a fair bit of time to learn.  It was designed to SLOW DOWN typing because the original machines used long armed letter keys and if two keys were activated too closely together, the key arms would bind up and freeze.  The typist would need to stop and manually separate the key arms – and hope no damage resulted such as throwing off the alignment of a key either up or down, or sideways.

QWERTY layout was created to minimize such possibilities as its layout  separates most commonly used letters and allows more time between strokes for common words.

I had a professor who in the 1970s invented a better – i.e. faster – layout but manufacturers were not interested in ‘retraining the world’.

And so QWERTY rules forever!