JUST DO THE MATH

Has the U.N. food agency lost its mind, and the Globe and Mail?

This week the UN report FAO: The State of Food and Agriculture 2013 ( found at http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3300e/i3300e00.htm) was highlighted in a  half-page spread in the  Globe and Mail, July 15, 2013 L3 “Obesity is taking on epic proportions globally” which was simply a list of statistics and an oversized, fat-at–the-waist globe graphic.

The data and G&M focus on obesity is interesting as the actual report mentions the issue but it is almost - but not quite - buried in the 79 page report -- whose actual focus is on world hunger and malnutrition.

Obesity, in fact, accounts for less than 4% of the print space and UN focus.  The country by country obesity statistics used by the G&M are from the tables of the Statistical Annex, pp. 71-79, and are the last column of five columns; the first four focusing on malnutrition and its effects on child growth stunting (col 1), Anaemia (col 2), Vitamin A Deficiency (col 3) and Iodine deficiency (col 4).

So why the G&M focus on only the obesity data?

Because it is a hot issue and the new ‘enemy’.

And the UN statistics are horrendous – if they were credible!

Yes, the U.N. report mentions on p. 1 that 500 million people world-wide as of 2008 are obese. Pages 57-58 discuss the mixed results from enforced nutrition labels and reviews the literature on junk food advertising and beverage restriction recommendations.  And it concludes, p.60, that better nutrition education will help everyone: from the  2 billion who are malnourished to the millions who are obese; and of course, regular exercise is important.

What earth-shattering news!!!!

The Obesity numbers, country by country, as highlighted by the G&M, are truly dramatic.  The U.N. report in fact notes the obesity rates worldwide have gone up from 6% to 12% between 1980 and 2008 (p.12) citing the study by Stevens et al., 2012.

 

Canada is listed as having 24.1% of the adult population as obese (i.e., 1 in 4) and the U.S.A., in the actual report, Statistical Annex p. 79, is rated 31.8% (i.e., 1 in 3)!!!

If these numbers alone do not warn you that SOMETHING IS WRONG WITH THE UN METHOD OR CRITERIA FOR OBESITY, then the other statistics should.

The top 20 obese lands are Nauru at a whopping 71.1%, Cook Islands at 64.1%, Tonga at 59.6%, Samoa at 55.5%, Palau 50.7%, Marshall Islands 46.5%, Kiribati 45.8%, Kuwait 42.8%, Micronesia 42%, Saint Kits 35.2%, Saudi Arabia 35.2%, Belize 34.9%, Egypt 34.6%, Jordan 34.3%, U.A.E.  33.7%, South Africa 33.5%, Barbados 33.4%, Qatar 33.1% and Mexico at 32.8%.

At the opposite extreme are Bangladesh 1.1% obese, Ethiopia 1.2%, Nepal 1.5%, Vietnam 1.6%, Madagascar 1.7%, Eritrea 1.8%, D.R. Congo 1.9%, India 1.9%, Cambodia 2.3% and Burkina Faso at 2.4%.

Regionally, only Africa, Asia and Oceania are below 12% in obesity with the Americas and Europe all over 20% obese.

So what is going on here?

Since medical and government records are limited for many of the over 2.6 billion people of India and China (which make up over 1/3 of the world’s population) a tiny sample with massive extrapolation must have been used.  The same extrapolation would be needed for the Arab world and rest of Africa, so the statistic methods used may well be skewed.

What is more likely, and more important, is that the U.N.’s assumed ‘normal’ weight range is too low and does not sufficiently take into account the fact that once drought and famine are eliminated, people eat more and gain weight – returning to a more normal weight for their bodies under optimal – or more optimal -- food conditions.

But the real culprit in distorting the numbers is the BMI – again!!!!!

Too bad the G&M and U.N. did not pay more attention to this yardstick used in the report for determining obesity – the now highly disputed and error-prone BMI!!!

Yes, that BMI against which I have railed in previous blogs; using both more recent expert reviews and common sense observation: Do 1 in every 4 Canadians over age 19 look OBESE to you? – as the UN’s Canadian BMI statistic of 24.3% claims?

The U.N. report, to its credit, does give its BMI definition and mentions some concerns:

 

p. 72    Obesity

Adults over 20 years of age are considered obese when their body

mass index (BMI) is greater than or equal to 30. BMI equals body

weight in kilograms divided by height in metres squared (kg/m2).

And it does point out that the BMI has been criticized by reputable experts, and has been shown to be especially unreliable regarding Asian populations.

To quote the U.N. report and its many caveats – which it then ignores --

 

p. 17 (my underlining)

 

Limitations of using the body mass index in measuring excessive body fat

Body mass index (BMI) is a convenient and widely available measure of underweight,overweight and obesity. It is a proxy measure of excessive body fat. BMI does not distinguish between weight from fatty tissue and that from muscle tissue;

nor does it indicate how an individual’s body mass is distributed. People who carry a disproportionate amount of weight around their abdomen are at a higher risk of various health problems; waist circumference can therefore be a useful measure to gain additional insight, but it is measured less often and less easily than BMI (National Obesity Observatory, 2009). BMI classifications were established based on risks of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, but populations and individuals vary in terms of how BMI relates to both body fat composition and the prevalence of disease (WHO, 2000). The limitations of the international BMI classifications are particularly evident among Asian populations. For example, in 2002 an expert group, convened by the World Health Organization (WHO), found that the Asian populations considered have a higher percentage of body fat as well as higher incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease at lower BMIs than do Caucasians (controlling for age and sex). However, the experts also found differences in the appropriate BMI cut-off points among the Asian populations themselves. The expert group decided to maintain the existing international standard classifications, but also recommended the development of an additional classification system for Asian populations that uses lower cut-offs and encouraged the use of country-specific cut-offs and the waist circumference measure (Nishida, 2004).

 

 True obesity is not, contrary to general belief and UN conclusions, simply the result of prosperity, good food supplies and manufactured food processing. It is a metabolism issue, not a food access issue.

Only surgery to reduce the size of one’s stomach or intestinal tract -- to allow for weight loss by reducing the body’s organs which extract calories from food – really works.

Even medically supervised, short-term weight loss dieting does not last,  and lifetime Weight Watcher programs are just that: lifetime semi-starvation to get that thinner look your body’s genetics refuse to allow under normal conditions.

So the U.N.’s report, like the other studies using the misguided and error filled BMI standard, is JUNK science and dangerous!!!

The outlandish numbers defy reason and what our eyes see all around us.

A reality check says they are wrong.

Shame on UN and shame on the Globe and Mail for promoting this false mania.

Technology and Media

Africa beats the U.S. in banking technology

A recent article in the Globe and Mail on smart phone use in Africa -- highlighting Kenya -- was mindboggling!

Impoverished Africa is turning into banking heaven, making financial transactions from loans, pay deposits and withdrawals to buying groceries and a snack or drink from a street vendor both simple and instant.

By comparison, our North American system looks like Ford’s model-T!

Taking advantage of Africa’s widespread love of cheap smart phones and lack of local bank networks, African mobile cell phone companies  Safaricom and Vodacoms have gone into cloud banking and have turned Africa into the ultimate in payment transactions.

Africans with smart phones – whether rich or on a limited income/salary --  can sign up with them for M-Pesa, a wireless system to pay bills, buy meals, groceries and other purchases without needing bank tellers and ATMs for cash (which makes you a target for a mugging) or credit cards and debit cards.

People simply have an account in the cloud, use their special pin and the pin of the restaurant, storekeeper or even street vendor (normally posted in huge numbers above the vendor’s stall) for instant transactions which are confirmed to both parties by text message!

You can even take out a small cash loan at a preset interest rate to carry you over to your next paycheque – all from your smartphone!

And the people of Africa love it.  Even the illiterate are learning how.

It’s quick and instant and totally simple.  No extra travel to banks or ATMs, no need for risky cash, and no waste of the environment generating plastic credit or debit cards of one sort or another – which North American companies are constantly replacing and ‘updating’.

 

With smart phones ubiquitous across the U.S. and Canada, why are we not on this far superior payment system?

Why do we need ATMs at almost every major intersection and countless local bank branches?  Why do we need to carry a dozen or more credit and bank cards that balloon our wallets?  Why need store card readers to complete transactions which can handle only one customer at a time, and take forever to process?

Why, in this area of banking and payments, are Africa light years ahead of the supposed global technology leader – the United States?

 

Necessity was the mother of invention for Africa, and local companies saw the light and created a banking/payment revolution.

In February 2012,  Barclays introduced a variation to Britain called Pingit.

When – if ever –this simply brilliant payment system will come to North America is unclear.

Last year my banks and credit card companies finally sent me ‘new cards’ with security computer chip technology (invented in Europe over 4 decades ago and used since 1992 by French Carte Bleue  (Wikipedia, “Smart Card”)), and now my banks and credit card companies are starting to send me ‘improved’ cards that have ‘tap and go’ power, a technology the gasoline companies here have already been using for half a decade!

 

Put simply, North America, the world’s supposed technological leader, is moving at a snail’s pace in the payment/money transfer area, locked in a step-by-step plastic card model that Africa has already leapfrogged into the future.

 

 

 

 

 

Our New World

Orwell – are you laughing?

George Orwell, the author of1984 and its allusions to WW2 would be falling off his chair laughing at the most recent events re:Afghanistan.

Now, out of the clear blue, we learn the U.S. is negotiating with the Taliban, to broker a ‘peace’ and include the Taliban in any future government – if they put down their assault weapons and suicide bombings.

The Taliban are seeking recognition as a legitimate political voice, opening an office in Doha, Qatar, and stating through their spokesman, Mohammed Naeem, that the Taliban “want good relations with “all of the world countries.”” (Reuters, G&M, June 19, 2013, A3, “U.S., Taliban to begin talks”).

 

How odd and how déjà vie!

Since 9-11, for the last12 years, the Taliban have been ‘the enemy’. They sheltered and empowered Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaida terrorists for years until the day of reckoning, 9-11.

For 5 years, 1996 to 2001, the West closed its eyes to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and their imposition -- with an iron fist – of Sharia Muslim fundamentalism: destroying century old Buddahs that were revered by millions, banning girls from school and enforcing Burkah style dress and other anti-female, medieval rules.

After 9-11, the U.S. and NATO responded by invading Afghanistan to crush Osama ben laden’s Al Qaida and ouster the Taliban government that sheltered him and his international terrorists, in the name of spreading fundamentalist Islam, and crushing its enemies: by definition, the morally corrupt West led by the United States and Israel.

And for the last 12 years, the battle for control of Afghanistan, the war to restore modern, western values and liberties and better treatment of women, has been unending and fierce.

 

So why the sudden change?  Why is the ‘great enemy’ and ‘ villain’ no longer excommunicated, no longer a demon to be exterminated at all cost?

 

Simple. 

The U.S. and NATO are withdrawing their troops by next year - after 12 bloody years of military statemate - and leaving the newly created Afghan army in charge.

The Taliban have been beaten at times but they have not given up.  But the West no longer has the stomach for, or money, to continue supporting the Hamid Karzai, ‘moderate’ and west-leaning government for ever.

Since the Taliban is the voice of the traditional and devoute Punstan majority, its defeat in battle was never assured or, really, likely. The Pushtan tribe constitutes some 50 million people straddling both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border, and alone constitutes 40% to 60% of Afghanistan’s population.nb (Wikipedia, “Punshtan”.)

As long as the majority of Pushtans supported and sheltered their Taliban kinsmen, Taliban defeat was never in the cards.

 

So diplomacy is replacing guns, and yesterday’s arch villain is suddenly today’s ‘new partner in peace’.

 

Orwell mocked this ‘pragmatic real-politick’ when it occurred in WW2 and he would again mock the hypocrisy and ‘amnesia’ that is occurring today.  

WW2 began when German AND Russia, implementing secret clauses of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact of  1939, invaded Poland together,  with Russia over-running and seizing (as agreed) Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bessarabia, Northern Bukovina and the Hertza region and (parts of) Finland. (Wikipedia “Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.)

But when Hitler turned on Russia in the summer of 1941 and invaded it, suddenly, Russia asked for and got British support and soon thereafter U.S. arms and materials, to create a second front against Germany.

The old truism: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” was applied, and suddenly the British and American propaganda machines that had villanized Communist Russia since the 1917 Revolution were suddenly turned on their heads – and people did not seemed to have noticed!

 

Today, the same ‘hold your nose’ and embrace yesterday’s enemy, is being applied to the Taliban.

They have not been exterminated let alone crushed by the most powerful armies of the West in over a decade of fighting. And soon, the western troops will be leaving for home – exhausted.

A brave face must declare western victory, and some chance of peace in Afghanistan must be tried now that the military option has failed.

I am waiting for the photo of Barak Obama shaking hands with the head of the Taliban and Hamid Karazi on the lawn of the White House or Camp David as in the past.

And, like Orwell, I am not confident that the leopard called the Taliban will change its spots and settle for democracy and co-existence in Afghanistan.