GAIA

Listen to the Bible

Environmentalists and conservationists are always wringing their hands and bewailing the deterioration of our planet’s ecosystems and wildlife due to man’s predations – planned or unplanned.

We humans are seen as the source of all the problems of the planet and, if not for us, the world would bloom with plants, trees and infinite non-human life.

It is therefore a bit of a shock for such activists to read the cover story in Time magazine on the state of nature in the USA today. (Time, December 9, 2013, pages 36-43)

Instead of decline and devastation, Gaia and her systems are doing fine, thank you -- to the point of excess!!!

1. Forests across the USA are still vast despite the rise in USA’s population to some 320,000,000 people.

This is because today humans tend to form dense small footprint clusters such as cities and towns:  New York at 8.34 million and the other top 9 cities account for 32.26 million people or 10% of the entire population -- in 10 urban dots. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population)  

Agriculture – i.e., the countryside - employs only some 5% of the population and including hamlets, villages and small towns, rural America accounts for only some 18% of the USA’s population according to the World Bank (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/rural-population-percent-of-total-population-wb-data.html).

Today, thanks to national and state parks and other wooded areas, forests cover some 75% of the US’s North Eastern, Great lakes, Mid-west, the South and the Rockies (Time, p.40). And according to estimates used by the US Dept. of Agriculture and Forest Service, forest areas today amount to 70% of the coverage in 1630, when colonists first arrived -- with most the deforested areas converted to farmland and animal husbandry. (p.3 of http://www.fia.fs.fed.us/library/briefings-summaries-overviews/docs/ForestFactsMetric.pdf).

 

2. Wildlife species that are forest based and that a short while ago seemed on the verge of extinction -- and were put on ‘protected lists’ -- are now at record numbers and exponentially increasing a la Malthus.

White tailed deer, according to the National Wildlife Research Center, have reached 30 million and growing – far more than in Columbus’s day.  Wild pigs, first brought to America in the 16^th century by Hernando de Soto, now number some 5 million and run amuck throughout the mainland’s 48 states (Time, p. 38).

The population explosion also applies to beavers, bald eagles, coyotes, wild turkeys, Burmese pythons – that make south Florida the world’s capital, alligators, bears and numerous others. 

Time’s chart of the top 10 wildlife population explosions (page 41) is as follows:

 

species	Numbers today	Increase since mid-20th century as percent
all deer	32,000,000	800  %
wild turkeys	8,000,000	1,500  %
Canada geese	5,700,000	370  %
wild pigs	5,500,000	120  %
racoons	5,000,000	2,700 %
beavers	5,000,000	2,400 %
alligators	5,000,000	400 %
black bear	450,000	320 %
cougars	100,000	1,600%
gray wolves	5,000	610 %

 

As urban and suburban areas are often near forested areas, and wild animals now regularly visit, feed and attack small pets, children and even adult humans in these residential areas, governments, even in Bambi-friendly New Jersey, are again encouraging hunting season and animal culls.

As a high school principal who spent years among northern Indian tribes once told me, humans have always been a part of nature’s system of checks and balances.  We are apex predators and nature has built in our participation to help maintain and restore wildlife balance.

A more important lesson and message from the Time article is this:

With forest coverage remaining vast, and in light of the current wildlife explosion, it is no longer tenable to blame humans, urbanization and industrialization for the record low forest wildlife populations in the 19^th through 20^th centuries --  as has long been the environmentalist’s battle cry.

We, the human ant, are a factor, but far less so than often assumed.

 

Gaia is mighty and resilient, and her ecosystems and life forms either bounce back, or due to ice age cycles, asteroid assault and the like, go through phases of decline, extinction and new birth.

America’s booming forest wildlife attests to this, and the need for human intervention: as we too, though small ants, are an element in maintaining balance.

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I have not before quoted the Bible in this blog, but it seems apropos here.

The very first commandment was given to animals: Genesis ch 1:22   “. . . be fruitful and multiply”.

The very second commandment, given to mankind, is Genesis ch 1:28

“Be fruitful and multiply; fill the earth and subdue it. Rule over the fish in the sea and the birds in the sky and over every living creature that moves on the ground.”   

YOUR MONEY

Bernanke meows

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve finally did what it has promised to do since mid-summer – some 6 months ago: start tapering its $85 billion dollar monthly buyback program.

It did so with a just over 10% reduction.

How did the markets react?    A spectacular change in the Dow Jones of 292 points; but all going UP, UP, UP – to just 8 points below the all time stock market record.

Analysts seem confused by this outcome as logic would have markets start to recede as almost free money for speculation is winding down.

Yes, $75 billion dollars is still being added to feed the gravy train this month.

And even if the same, approximately 10% cut were done each month – it would take a year before the ‘tapering’ and extra cash would be removed from the speculative stock market and derivative plays.

The ‘cut’, put simply, was too little to alter the speculative games.

In fact, speculators now know they have at least a year to ‘play’ with government subsidized, taxpayer cash.

And Bernanke’s comments that this ‘tapering’ would only go on if the economy stayed strong, all but guaranteed Wall Street and international speculators  that their money ‘bets’ – with almost free Bernanke dollars – are protected.

 

Well done Mr. Bernanke.

You are not a tiger, but a paper tiger.

You don’t roar, just meow.

YOUR MONEY

Which way is up – oh learned economic experts?

The world of central bankers is becoming more and more chaotic by the day as the old rules and logic fly out the door!

Should Central banks focus on unemployment or inflation/deflation or GDP or trade balances or rising house prices when deciding to intervene?

The primary principal for the 20 years leading up to the crash of 2008 was to keep inflation ‘managable’ to under 3% as, if nothing else, government debt becomes a  loans shark disaster when international market interest rates rocket.  Inflation also leads to people falling behind compared to rising prices for food, fuel, etc. and leads to increased poverty and social unrest (and possible revolt).

But since 2008, the focus has been on keeping the capitalist markets ‘cash fluid’ with cheap – almost free – money through government bailouts and bank prime rates of 1% or less for some 4+ years running, as well as other ‘clever’ ways of priming the cash flow through ‘quantitative easing’—a shell game  that has add trillions to the national debt of the USA alone!

With the US and Canadian and British economies showing steady signs of improvement and ‘life’ – in reduced unemployment, improved GDP and near or record stock markets, some central bankers – especially Ben Bernanke – have stated that they will taper off their buyback ‘subsidies’ soon.

While this makes sense and should have been done much sooner – since the lion’s share of the extra cheap money is ending up in speculative market plays -- fear and panic is setting in as these very same ‘beneficiaries’ and ‘players’ fear the end of the gravy train and ‘burst bubbles’ in their speculative games.

The new “enemy” we are being told, is DEFLATION – when the price of goods keeps on dropping.

Cheaper prices are good for consumers but deflation usually becomes a problem when ordinary people cannot afford to buy at even reduced prices, and manufacturing and importing grind to a halt with ‘over-capacity’ – resulting in greater unemployment and a vicious cycle to the bottom.

Some ‘experts’ see this danger approaching and the quest to control inflation has been given a new ‘spin’: inflation must be forced up to at least 2% to 3% or the economy will crash.    Governments must continue to flood the capital markets with almost free money to ‘stimulate’ the economy or else it will crash!

This mindset is currently Japan’s government policy, called Abenomics. And while given a fancy name after the current Prime Minister, it is the same foolish strategy that has been in place in Japan since the 1990s when it entered deflation – and has stayed that way for over 20 years.

Giving Toyota, Fuji and the other handful of super-conglomerates   almost free money has helped these companies make huge profits through their foreign branch dealings, but has starved Japanese retires of bank account income and made no difference to GDP and the overall Japanese economy.

Endless government infrastructure programs – whether make work projects or necessitated by almost annual earthquakes , especially severe ones at Kobe in 1995 and  Fukuoka in 2005 – have really not made an overall difference.

In general, it would be better, simpler and fairer, if governments wished to boost consumer spending to give each person a refund cheque or reduce income taxes.

That would prime the consumer money pump directly.  But adding billions to the national debt to primarily benefit banks and especially speculative investors and derivate plays is today’s central bank mindset.

Look to Japan’s lost almost ¼ century, you fools, and don’t fall into the same, deadly trap.

Even better, raising interest rates to historic norms will, if done gradually, spur companies to invest NOW in capital equipment and spur consumers to ‘buy’ before credit becomes more expensive. (In fact, this fear has been feeding the housing/condo boom in Canada for over a year now.)

It will also save private pension funds and national pension plans from ruin as they must keep some 40% of their assets in cashable, interest fixed bonds to pay retirees monthly cheques. For the last 4 years, nearly all have been losing money as a result, and have been forced to look for ‘better profits’ at higher risk investments – buying airports, hotels and even hockey teams.

The crash of Donald Trump International or the NHL Coyotes are two cautionary tales that I hope never befall our pension plans – or else all hell will break loose!!!

YOUR MONEY

China warns the world of bitcoin

The government of China has put a new twist on the old Chinese parable of the Emperor Who Has No Clothes.

It has become the only ‘honest man’ who tells the world the truth, and hopefully has burst the illusion and con that is bitcoin -- a ‘virtual’ currency first introduced in 2009 to carry on real world transactions - unlike Sim City's Simoleons.

China has prohibited its banks from accepting bitcoin 'money'.

The idea of a single currency that can be used internationally sounds great, and if banks and currency exchange companies with their high fees can be eliminated or reduced, all the better.

That is bitcoin’s appeal.  It’s low, fixed transaction fees – allowing lump sum of millions to be transferred for just fixed penny charges  – is a great lure, and anonymity and quick world wide transfers has made it especially appealing to illegal traffickers and money launderers, evading government eyes and detection.

But bitcoin has, as the Chinese government announced, no ‘guarantor  of last resort’ and no intrinsic value unlike gold or silver.

And to quote Wikipedia, “bitcoin”,

Many have mentioned speculative bubbles in connection with Bitcoin.^[61][62][63] Professor John Quiggin of the University of Queensland has noted that since Bitcoin by design has no intrinsic value, it is "perhaps the finest example of a pure bubble" currently known and "represent[s] the sharpest ever refutation of the efficient-markets hypothesis", but cautions that we have no way to predict when the value of bitcoins will return to zero.^[64]

 

Currently, there are at least 2 ETF funds speculating in bitcoin according to the Financial Post/Reuters as of December 13, 2013 (see http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/13/bitcoin-fund-raises-65m-after-two-months/)

According to the Globe and Mail (Dec 12, 2013, B11)  a bitcoin was worth just $13 US in January, peaked at $1,200 US in late November and has lost almost 40% since China's December 12, 2013 announcement.

Anyone for Monopoly money?

OUR NEW WORLD

 

3^rd world space race

In the 20th century the space race was between the USA and Russia.                                                                
 

This is no longer the case.   

                                                                                                                                                                                        The two superpowers have made peace and have collaborated in space since late 1980’s glasnost -- working on the international space station and now rely totally on Russian rockets to shuttle US supplies and personnel -- and those from other nations --  to the space station since the U.S. shutdown of its own shuttle program last year. 
 
Even the countries of Europe work together as one in space.

However, as noted in Time magazine Nov. 18, 2013, pages 10-11, Iran, Brazil, India and China are pursuing outer space independently. 

India has just launched a probe to Mars to check for signs of methane and water needed for future human habitation.

China is planning to launch a manned mission to the moon within the next few months and have its own space station in orbit by 2015. 
 

And as of December 14, 2013, China has just safely landed a state-of-the-art rover on the moon for soil analysis and site exploration for – probably – the upcoming manned landing. (See for details and pictures  http://www.dailytech.com/Chinas+Moon+Rover+Lands+Safe+and+Sound+Starts+Snapping+Pics/article33942.htm).

So what does this all mean?

Space exploration is a mix of scientific inquiry, proof of one's technological development and a source of international prestige and status – just like a first world 'super' power.

But going it alone also reminds me of the great 15th century explorations that discovered the new world of North and South America and led to decades of war for supremacy and control of land and its valuable resources.

 

Today, Antarctica and the Arctic are subject to dispute and “land/mineral rights claims”.  Canada in fact is seeking to claim the North Pole according to recent Globe and Mail reports in a challenge to Russia and Greenland.

So far, such competition and claims have been muted and asserted under “international law” and subject to international court final arbitration.

But outer space is another ball game with no rules and laws yet.

 
Will we be facing such deadly confrontations as the new world created in space in the near future?

I hope not, but China’s solo ventures to the moon and plans for a separate space station do  not bode well.

 

Neither does India's exploration of Mars.

 

As for Brazil and Iran, their buccaneer and as yet unclear plans only increase uncertainty and the prospects of competition leading to conflict.

 

And the final unknown variable is private enterprise.  At least 3 U.S. companies are building their own rockets or high atmosphere tourist planes, Virgin airlines is also touting a tourist round-trip to our Moon.


PS:  Mars Human mission  

Private, non-profit and governmental organizations have for over a decade been planning and training for this. Prefabricated, isolated ‘biospheres’ have been built in various locations and ‘crews’ left there for over a year to test the psychological impacts of isolation and limited, but intense, human crew contact, and the ability to grow hothouse foods and recycle/create water.

The non-profit Mars Society expects to have 6 suitable volunteers spend a year living in the Arctic on a simulated Mars mission at the society's Flashline Mars Arctic Research Station on Canada's Devon Island starting in July 2014. (http://www.space.com/23401-mock-mars-mission-arctic-volunteers.html)

 The goal, to send humans to Mars, will be unlike any previous human exploration.

Unlike small satellites and mini-rovers which can reach Mars in about 7 months, a space ship with a human crew of 8 to 12 (minimum) would take 3 years to reach the red planet with our current level of propulsion technology.

 

And these volunteers would not just be exploring the planet but be consigned to live the rest of their lives there – as colonists, because we have no way to get them back to earth!

 The spaceship would consequently dwarf America’s space shuttles as it would need to hold not only a diverse male and female ‘settler’ crew, but enough food, water, machinery and prefabricated materials for them to build an artificial settlement in the absence of an atmosphere that we can breathe, and soil that is currently lifeless.

If successful, it will be the greatest achievement in human history, a giant leap forward for mankind’s dream of reaching the stars.

 

 

 

MEDIA and YOUR MONEY

 

The 7° C tire

 

This year’s marketing push in the GTA (Toronto urban sprawl area) to get you to buy winter tires is   7 degrees Celsius.   That is the temperature --according to the new sales pitch -- at which regular tires begin to become stiff and reduce proper traction and safe braking.

 

Only softer, snow tires are not affected.

 

This new ‘fact’ is even being pitched by the Ontario Ministry of Transportation on their website http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/topics/wintertires.shtml.

 

Early November is the recommended switch over time.

 

So, since 7° C (45° Fahrenheit) is not an unusual temperature overnight in the fall and early spring in southern Ontario and occurs for 6 months of the year in the GTA, 7 months in Ottawa, and 8 months in Sudbury many Canadians should be using winter tires most of the year -not just for snow and ice. (See for average temperatures see  http://www.eminf.com/dayton.html. ) (For Sudbury see http://weatherspark.com/averages/28361/Greater-Sudbury-Ontario-Canada)

 

 

This is ludicrous for 3 reasons:

 

1. ‘Normal’ tires sold today are rated “all season” and that covers temperatures well below 7°C. According to http://www.eminf.com/tirebuy.html, “all season” tires do not harden until the temperature is below -10°C (14°F) and offers the following link to find official average temperatures by major city (year round) http://www.eminf.com/dayton.html. 

 

Toronto and area do not get below -10°C  (14°F) regularly or all day, not even up in Newmarket (see http://www.yr.no/place/Canada/Ontario/Newmarket/statistics.html) but Ottawa does, Sudbury does and all of Quebec, even Montreal and Quebec City.  Super cold temperatures also rule winter in Manitoba through Alberta.

 

But not southern Ontario and the GTA!!!!

 

2. Tires warm up quickly when vehicles start driving due to friction with the ground, as reflected by the natural increase in tire air pressure.  So a tire that may have sat overnight at below - 10°C will warm up quickly and give better traction unless the ongoing outdoor temperature is also well below this freezing range.

 

3. Winter tires use soft, suction cup like rubber that rapidly wears down when driven on bare pavement -- even during winter!!!  A new set would not last 6 months if driven on dry roads: a fact acknowledged by my dealership service department.

 

 

So, yes, if you live in rural areas where roads are often narrow with 6 foot ditches, gravel or pockmarked surfaces, and are not ploughed often, or where snow comes down by the foot often, yes, snow tires are needed.   They won’t be effective 100% but they are better.

 

And if you live in truly frigid parts of the country, yes, winter softer rubber is needed.

 

But not in the GTA urban areas with good paved roads and curbs, good snow ploughing service and where temperatures rarely go and stay below -10°C (14° F).

 

Just follow the standard rules that always apply:

Drive slower, allow more space between vehicles, and avoid overdrive gear.  Drop down to 2nd gear if need be for heavier ground snow and up hills.
 

And, of course, in early November, make sure your tires – all season or winter – are at the proper air pressure and you still have enough tread.  Bald tires of any type do not help.

 (If any of the edge and middle tread bars -- between the tire raised tread rows -- are level with the tread, the tire is legally unsafe.  Also, if you insert a US penny, head first, and can see all of Lincoln's head, or all of the Queen's crown on an old Canadian penny, the tire needs replacing,)

 

 

 

A final quote from http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20121031114859AASdbll

 

“I have driven and taught driving using all season radial tires in Alberta Canada twelve months of the year, in temperatures as low as minus 30°C., up to plus 30°C. They tend to work fine through that range.”

 

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‘So why this new 7°C push – because winter tire sales are dropping as Global Warming or, for skeptics, 10-15 year climate cycles are causing less snow and warmer temperatures -- at least in the GTA.