YOUR MONEY

Sanity starts to Return

Wednesday, December 16, 2015, will go down in history as the official end to almost 8 years that History will describe as a moderate Depression. 

Yes, Depression.  

For almost 8 years US interest rates (and those throughout the Western World)  have been near ZERO to prop up an economy in rigor mortis and only now is the US on a recovery roll.

The  psychological moment and tipping point has arrived and soon all governments and countries will have no option but to follow suit and raise interest rates or have trillions of dollars currently hoarded by corporations, Sovereignty funds and other Wealthy flee to the USA.

It's capitalism 101.

So why am I happy with rising interest rates?

Even if the prime goes to 4 or 5 percent -- which is the historic norm -- it will keep company and union pension plans solvent as they must hold vast sums in cashable accounts to pay out retires; and are currently in the RED.  The same with national pension plans which may run out in the near future at near zero percent interest rates. 

Same with Insurance companies and annuities.

And those who have saved money over the years and been losing money  held in their bank accounts (thanks to monthly fees) or near zero investments will again be rewarded for their frugality and "saving for a rainy day" or retirement. 

Put simply, with over  25% the population now over age 65 and pensionable seniors in Western countries and Japan and China– with long lives still ahead of 20 years or more --  raised interest rates are essential so governments and companies and insurers can continue to supply the necessary ‘safety nets’ that sooner or later we all need.

 Media

 Style, politics and TV
 

Yesterday Canadians voted and contrary to the expectations of the numerous, almost weekly survey polls, it was not a close 3 way race but a Liberal Party landslide!

If Donald Trump had been asked, he would have predicted the great Liberal victory just as he has almost destroyed the Jeb Bush run for the White House with two words: "low energy".

Mr Bush has excellent job experience and is a progressive Republican but wears a suit and tie too often and is usually subdued in his body language and speech: i. e., no waving arms and theatrical jesters,  no bellowing or pounding the table.  Put simply he, like most of the candidates from both U.S. parties, comes across on TV as subdued if not wimpy. 

In a media universe where Iron Man and 007 and gross humour comedies rule the big screen, and the walking dead and vampires and bloody medieval tales rule the small screen, and when violent video games make more money than movies, movie rentals and movie streaming, boredom sets in quickly.  Put simply, politicians who dress conservatively -- tie and suit - and who often resemble wooden statues , have minimal appeal.

In our recent Canadian election, Prime Minister Harper continued to look and speak and physically move in the old school fashion and so too the staid NDP leader, Thomas Mulcair. 

As for the election winner, Justin Trudeau,  only 7 years in politics and just  2 1/2 years as a party leader, he was a breath of dramatic fresh air as one would expect from a teacher of drama.

Trudeau, in media clips and ads, was almost always seen without jacket, often tie-less and with sleeves symbolically rolled up. He always flashed his great and friendly smile, walked in a fast, energetic pace -- when on the street and meeting people, and was constantly moving his arms and speaking with passion.

The Liberal advertising slogan proved true: people wanted "change now", and as The Donald would have predicted, if 2 of the 3 competitors are stiff and dull, the winner will be Mr. Energy.

Hopefully the Liberal promises and plans will work too, because in the end, substance, i.e., government policies, is far more important than the glowing face of an energized leader with good hair -- or one with a bad comb over job.

YOUR MONEY and TECHNOLOGY

Steve Jobs rolls over again and again and again

If there was any doubt Apple has lost its Mojo or the bloom is gone, this year’s early September’s (back-to-school) extravaganza release of  new devices has been widely acknowledged as a major disappointment.

Any myth that Apple is cutting edge and the leader and 'great innovator' was laid to rest.

'Evolution' and ‘S’ series upgrades were the company’s buzzwords. 

So what's new?

iPhone get upgrades to processor and cameras and some gimmicks. Oh, yes, it now has an Android devices app so your iPhone can work with them.

The upgrades match what Android competitors already have but it is nice for Apple to recognize most people buy Android devices and Apple needs to be able to link to them.

iPad gets a larger 12.9 inch big brother -- to compete with Android competitors already on the market

The new tablet also comes with two Apple firsts-- a keyboard cover and stylus.  Too bad both ideas have been part of Microsoft’s Surface line up for years and are widely available from other manufacturers and third party accessory suppliers.  

And it must have shocked Apple launch attendees and linked worldwide audiences when Tom Cook called up Microsoft employees to demonstrate the wonders of the stylus.

Apple TV box, which has been underperforming and marginal for some 7 years, has now been totally redesigned and refocused to allow for video gaming. And Apple, for once,  is allowing independent third party game creators access to the new OS operating system.

Also, the Apple TV box will come with sensors for body movement recognition.  

So Apple has finally realized the existence of PlayStation and Wii and Xbox.

What innovation!!!!
 

Apple Watch, whose sales have disappointed experts and which has been ridiculed by early adopters as flawed and hard to use,  will no longer need to be teetered to a nearby iPhone to operate.  Think Samsung Gear S and Google’s Android Wear.   Most notably, it is getting new, designer wrist bands from Hermes and new finishes including rose gold.   Wow!!! What great breakthroughs!!!

All these new devices will be priced to ensure Apple continues to have windfall profits as it refuses to accept anything less than a 50% profit -- unlike all others who accept 30% or far less.

Finally, the new operating system which will run the new Apple TV, the iPhone 6S and 6S Plus  and the new iPad Pro and any new programs or apps designed for these devices will not be backward compatible. 

If you want a new feature, sorry, no upgrades allowed. Just pull out your wallet and throw away your year old or older unit into the garbage!!!

So much for saving the environment!!!!

But why, you may ask, does the title of this blog focus on Steve Jobs?

I have argued in the past Jobs was a brilliant marketer and Paris/Milan quality 'designer' but really not an innovator or inventor. 

·  But Steve Jobs hated the idea of a stylus and often ridiculed it.  Now it is an Apple 'highlight'.

·    As far as Jobs was concerned, the original iPad was the one and only 'perfect size', but now there are many and growing. 

·    Apple Watch’s focus on optional real gold finishing and designer outsourcing to Hermes or anyone else, and diverse wrist bands as a key selling point, would not have been acceptable to the Zen Buddhist and control obsessed Jobs.

·    Also, Steve Jobs (while still healthy) had one fundamental rule: never release a product until all the bugs and flaws have been solved; it must be perfect from day one on the market.

Today Apple is the most valuable company in the world and hugely profitable. It has millions of loyal users who worship Steve Job's iconic brand.

But Steve would not be happy with the companies 'progress'.

He would be rolling over in his grave at every one of last Wednesday's 'great breakthroughs'.

Your Money and GAIA

Uncle Sam is on a Roll Again

Last Friday the US unemployment rate was reported as 5.1%. 

As economists consider  5.0% full employment - as maternity leave, illness and other factors always cause some workers to be off -  this is the best employment numbers since April 2008, just  before the Financial Crisis --- so the real US economy is back in high gear.

Why now? 

1. Globalization has peaked, as a recent article in the Globe and Mail noted, and new markets and rapid increase in international trade is a thing of the past.  We have reached more or less world trade equilibrium.  

China and its supposedly endless demand for foreign resources and goods is crashing or slowing down as should have been anticipated: a country with men in space is no longer a 'developing" nation but a fully developed one.  China has completed its 'economic great leap forward' and is more like Europe’s France or Italy or Spain  as an economy. So rapid growth and raw materials import demand will decline as China has given up on being the world’s cheapest factory and moved upscale in its products; and now caters to over 300 million of its own middle-class citizens.

India, the world’s second most populous country is booming as well and sends probes to Mars like any other, respected first world country:  with deep expertise in science, engineering and technology.

The revival of Britain’s Jaguar luxury brand and the even more august Land Rover lineup is due to India’s Tata Group which has over 100 companies in over 100 countries around the world (See tata.com).

Europe - if it can sidestep the crisis and flood of illegal immigrants from war torn and politically corrupt Arab Middle East and Africa --  will start to roll again to meet 5 years of pent up demand after prolonged austerity and high unemployment.

Socialist overly generous 'benefits' will continue to be reined in and working for a living will return to the mindset norm. 

2. PEAK OIL has been a sham for decades but is still promoted by the Nuclear Energy industry and wind and solar powered 'environmentalists' who ignore production costs and environmental degradation at the manufacturing level.  

Technology has always found ways to extract more oil and natural gas and the planet is awash in both. EVERYWHERE!

A recent estimate predicts oil and gas reserves still untouched in the Arctic Circle are 4 times greater than all no known world reserves.

Through fracking technology, US oil production now exceeds that of Saudi Arabia!!!!   Even at $40 a barrel the US industry seems to be viable and surplus oil supplies -- not shortages -- are the norm.

Yes, the days of $80 a barrel oil let alone $120 or $200 a barrel are gone as they should be - unless OPEC or some major player suddenly creates a boycott situation again. 

The most cost intensive oil on the planet, Canada’s tar sands, is still profitable at US $80 a barrel so any oil price above $80 has been a windfall to nearly all producers and government royalty collection.  (Saudi Arabia’s break even point is under US$30 a barrel!!!)

And the open-market hasalways been a legal, market-manipulation scam as 'investors' are allowed to buy oil - with almost free money thanks to the Federal Reserve near zero interest rates - and store it for up to a year at costs of approximately $2.50 a barrel per year!!

Put simply, as world supply stayed up and up, these 'investors' got cold feet and flooded the market with oil; and so the price dropped suddenly by some 2/3.

So where do we stand in 2016 and thereafter?

USA will lead the world economy for the next decade thanks to OIL. OIL,OIL and natural gas!!!!

1. Cheap oil and natural gas prices will continue to revitalize the US economy and industry and make the cost of living drop and allow more consumer spending on 'frills' such as a new vehicle, renovations, travel, etc.

2. US interest rates will rise as the Fed. will return to its proper focus in good times: limiting inflation by raising rates and encouraging savings.

3. Taxes will rise somewhat to pay for the excess 3 trillion dollar extra debt the Fed.’s “monetary easing” added: a short term parachute that should have ended by 2010 but has continued for some 5 more years adding to the burden of the next two generations of tax payers.  But high employment and a booming economy should generate a lot of tax revenue to help.

4. SUV and truck sales will continue to dominate and subcompact and electric cars will be built for the few and to meet 'overall gas consumption' government mandated numbers. 

5. The stock market will continue to fall.  Wildly overvalued stocks have been pumped higher and higher on almost free money from the Federal Reserve’s super low interest rate and “monetary easing’ policies. Now that the Fed. will be raising interest rates due to full employment and interconnected, almost automatic, rising inflation,

stock ‘plays’ and short term ‘gambles’ will again be reined in or face chapter 11.

Then, when the stock market  return to its senses, slow and steady growth will begin again for companies that make and sell real products that people need -- and which pay dividends.  

Yes, soon the good times will roll again in North America; all thanks to human ingenuity and Gaia's great gifts of OIL and natural gas!!!

GAIA

Good News - Bad news

The constant wailing and hand ringing by those in fear of Climate Change and man’s involvement need to take a deep breath and step back from the edge of the cliff.

Good News first: trees rejoice

The Globe and Mail carried an article entitled ”We are making the world Greener”, Aug 29, 2015 F2, which reported that 20 years of space microwave monitoring of biomass – i.e., living plant volume on Earth, found that after a decline between 1998 and 2002, between 2002 and 2012 “something surprising happened: The trees started growing back.”

Specifically, deforestation in the Amazon and Indonesia has rapidly declined while the vast forests of China and Russia are blooming, as well as the grasslands of Australia and Africa.

China alone has committed to replanting 400,000,000 hectares by 2050.  Germany has allotted $830,000,000 to help Brazil protect the Amazon and similar programs by other First World nationals and organizations have been very successful.

But the real key, according to the article and analysis, are two words anathema to tree huggers and those who glorify back to the land, labour intensive organic farming.

Yes, the two identified key factors are urbanization and replacement of small scale farming with agri-business.

Put simply, people in cities do not chop down forests and small scale farming -- using 1000 year old techniques -- is inefficient and wastes land.

Bad News: natural forest fires rage on

Annual summer forest fires are burning throughout the USA and Western Canada – nearly all having been attributed to lighting and natural forces.

Yes, campers and arsonists are not the culprits; but nature, GAIA, is doing what she often does on her own:  burn off old growth to make room for new growth that will regenerate in the open air and reach full height in 10 to 20 years.

Human efforts have been unable to stop these raging fires and we again must rely on GAIA to bring quenching and heavy rains.

Notice the pattern?

The human ant is too weak to stop what GAIA starts and only with her benevolence can the vast flames be stopped.

And during these forest fires – uncaused by humans – the amount of ‘stored carbon’ released from trees and shrubs and other plant matter is humungous!!! 

 

But is anyone, any environmentalists really counting this added air born carbon and combustion gases?

After all, like the constant and unending eruption of above ground and underwater volcanoes, no one bothers to track or calculate their carbon footprint.

When scientists seriously start to do so, the impact of the human ant – who is now blamed for all carbon in the atmosphere – will be returned to our real status of ants in the gigantic and resilient and ever cycling world that is the Earth or GAIA.

FYI:

According to http://www.livescience.com/1981-wildfires-release-cars.html

Another new study, detailed in the Nov. 1 issue of the journal Nature, found that over the past 60 years, forest fires have had the greatest direct impact on carbon emissions from the boreal forests located in the higher latitudes of Canada, Alaska and Siberia, both by the amount of carbon released as the forests burn and the emission of carbon dioxide from the soil as the sun reaches through the empty branches and promotes faster decomposition.

Fires that become large enough can release huge pulses of the gas into the atmosphere very rapidly.

"A striking implication of very large wildfires is that a severe fire season lasting only one or two months can release as much carbon as the annual emissions from the entire transportation or energy sector of an individual state," the authors of the NCAR study wrote.

And according to https://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htmt

        "Human additions of CO2 to the atmosphere must be taken into         perspective.

        Over the past 250 years, humans have added just one part of CO2 in         10,000 to the atmosphere. One volcanic cough can do this in a day."        

YOUR MONEY

The new Warren Buffett

 I have long be an admirer of Warren Buffett.  

 He is not only one of the wealthiest people on the planet but has kept to his Midwest roots still living in his decades old  Omaha, Nebraska home, and has pledged 99% of his estate to charity. 

 

He has been the model investor looking to the long term and modest growth, in diverse companies that are key to the well being of the US.  economy and future.

 

There was a saying “What's good for General Motors is good for the U.S.A.” That was true for the 1950s and 1960s when GM dominated the car and truck business and directly and indirectly produced thousands of well paying jobs and supported local businesses around the country.

I have felt the same about Warren Buffett and his company Berkshire Hathaway:  "What's good for Warren Buffett is good to the U S.A.”

But in the last few years a new and different Buffett has emerged. Buffett has gone on a buying spree gobbling up one American icon after another such as Wrigley, Mars candy, Heinz and Kraft with the backing of money from Brazilian private-equity firm 3G Capital; and G3 now owns Burger King and Tim Hortons as well.

In the name of right-sizing and rationalization, Buffett has closed the Heinz plant by Leamington, Ontario, the tomato capital of Canada, enduing a 105 year operation that employed 740 workers; with the stroke of a pen putting this one-industry  community  on the dole and replacing Canadian tomatoes and jobs with Mexican tomatoes and cheaper labour.

More recently, some 700 administrative jobs have been eliminated due to the merging of Heinz-Kraft.

And this month Buffett has paid an astounding US $32.3 billion for aerospace Precision Castparts, the largest single acquisition in the history of  Berkshire Hathaway.

Put simply, the new Buffett works fast and with daring boldness and between rightsizing, synergy efficiencies and the like, he looks more like Albert John Dunlap, nicknamed Chainsaw Al. 

 

What the ledger of profit and loss will show in years to come or how history will judge Warren Buffet I do not know, but for the moment it is a sad day in Mudville.

 

 YOUR HEALTH

Snoring and Sleep Apnea – the Holy Grail

Snoring and its extreme form, sleep apnea, are again hot button items as Time magazine  has another article on the dangers of sleep apnea (June 15, 2015, p.20). Time’s illustration shows the head of a man lying on his back with his mouth wide open and his neck curved upward.  The drawing also shows the man’s windpipe contracted or narrowed due to the position of his head - resulting in snoring and sleep apnea.

Time's information is nothing new and has been well known for at least the 15 years I have been studying the subject. The illustration shows the worst-case position possible for head and neck, and one for which simple repositioning and various devices on the market address -- more or less.

The basics are well known:

• snoring is the rhythmic and repetitive production of a single sound -- like a  musical note -- or pairing sounds when breathing during sleep

• air in the  lungs/breathing system gets distorted  and emerges like a note from a wind instrument such as a flute, trumpet, saxophone or tuba

• 60% of men and 40% of women eventually become snorers as they age

• most snoring  occurs while sleeping  on one's back though snoring on one's side also occurs.

• snorers are NOT aware they are snoring and making repeated, loud noise. In fact they will vigorously deny snoring and accuse the person making the claim of lying, and only video footage or multiple witnesses will be believed (as per my own case).

• As snorers are not deaf, I conclude that the brain has somehow learned to ignore the  person's own ‘signature’  snore and treats it like regular background noise.

• nudging a snorer or telling him/her to turn over works temporarily as it breaks the subconscious snoring cycle.

• people can snore when asleep sitting up but are far more likely  to snore when lying down.

• people do NOT snore when walking, running or are otherwise involved in conscious activity.  It is limited to the semi-conscious state of sleep -- when mental control of body functions is reduced.

Using the wind instrument analogy, medical scientists have long identified three factors: 

1. sagging upper mouth palate.  This is rarer, but over time, the muscles of the upper mouth can   weaken and sag and allow for reed-like sound vibration. Biteplates and even surgery -- like a facelift -- are available.

2. Poor Head position.

    This is the major cause of snoring and is the result of the Law of Gravity.

     a. tongue windpipe constriction. The air passage behind the tongue gets narrowed when lying down -- especially on one's back – due to the Law of Gravity.  Our tongues fall forward when we sit or stand -- due to gravity --  or are  kept forward by throat muscles when we are conscious and working under a car or sink. But our tongues fall back when sleeping on our backs or droop downward if we are on our side: causing the windpipe to narrow and/or twist.  

Simple Solutions: 1. when on one’s back, keep the entire head elevated above the                                          shoulders.                         

                                2. when sleeping on one’s side, keep the head horizontal.  (Yes,  side-                                             sleeping with the face turned down would work but it leads to a                                                             stiff neck in the morning from being twisted.)

     b. sleeping with mouth open.  Dropping the jaw alters the air flow pattern and helps constrict the windpipe behind the tongue. It creates a distinctive snore just as a tuba produces a much different note than a flute or trumpet. Mouth pieces and chin straps have been invented to address this factor. But keeping the head elevated when on one’s back or having the cheek and jaw properly cushioned when on one’s side also work – just as they do for tongue issues!

****  For sleep apnea -- which usually involves both open mouth and tongue related constriction -- proper elevated head position is essential, and there are a variety of breathing devices and extra oxygen pump-machines on the market.  

So,  if poor head position is the real and common cause, then using the ‘wrong pillow’ is the central problem.

Put simply, the pillow one uses determines and locks in place the position of the head, tongue and jaw.

Normal pillows, whether firm (foam), soft (foam) or super soft (i.e. feathered) do not usually work for snorers and sleep apnea.

And neither do many of the specialty pillows on the market which promise a ‘better’, ‘more restful’  night’s sleep and ‘reduced neck and back pain’ in the morning, but rarely claim to help with snoring.

 Moreover, to date, no single pillow design fits both proper side and proper back sleeping as they require radically different head support positions (see more below), and people's body frames and weight/bulk also affect how the head angles against a pillow.

The Holy Grail: better and best pillow designs:

• P shaped pillows currently being sold are often fine for side-only sleeping: so long as the pillow is raised or lowered as-a-whole so that the head is not forced to angle up or drop down below the horizontal.   Some have two raised ends to accommodate different heights – which is fine.
•  

                                                     

Unfortunately, most people have faces that narrow from the ear forward so the pillow needs e3xtra support for the cheek.  P and Double-P pillows have no such special raised sides.   Thin and small frames people can get away with this but not larger headed individuals.

• Back sleepers only need two ordinary pillows angled to form a hill slope and adjusted to the individual’s shoulder frame and spine comfort. 

 

BUT, for those of us who roll at night and sleep both ways, no pillow on the market does both jobs.

Over 15 years ago, I started on the mission of creating a dual-function pillow – the Holy Grail of snorere pillows - and have a prototype I use today. I call it the Silent Sleeper.

The dynamics of the ideal -- yet to be marketed – dual-function pillow is actually quite simple:

1. the neck must be gently cushioned if contacted at all. Only the jaw and cranium – i.e., solid bone,  when on the side, and cranium alone when sleeping on one's back are to make solid contact and bear the pressure.

 2. the head and neck and spine -- which form one continuous, interlinked chain --  must be allowed  to stay in a relaxed and natural line without any sideways stress on the vertebrae.

When sleeping on one’s side, all three parts must line up horizontally, i.e., the spine and neck bones are to line up with an imaginary line running dead centre through the skull   (as correctly displayed in tempura mattress ads.)   Legs strait or fetal position makes no difference though fetal does help relax vertebrae lengthwise as well.  

For back sleeping, the head must be fully elevated and neck and full spine -- including the small of the back - aligned into one continuous gentle C curve.   (This is where all specialty pillows falter as they recreate the undesirable head position of the Time magazine warning.)

A raised slope of 4 OVER 10 (or 40 degrees) works well for me with my bulky, curved, football lineman's shoulders.

The secrets of building such a dual-function pillow --  which I share with you gratis --  are as follows:

1. top surface (at least 3 cm)  must be soft and allow the head to cradle cozily. Quilted fabric works well as does polyester batting.  I use both.

2. under this top use a standard pillow-size piece of sofa chair foam 4 inches thick (which comes  in different levels from  firm to soft if you get the material  from an upholsterer). It needs to be cut out to have a  (sideways) oblong, sunken mid-section so when sleeping on one’s side the head rests in the dead middle -- like a baseball in an old fashioned catcher’s mitt.

 

The side curves (right and left) should be relatively low and designed to support a cheek (right or left) while keeping the head horizontal.  

            Note: these raised sides are needed because most people’s faces get narrower                         and narrower in front of the ear to the nose and are far wider behind the ear.      So this sloping side curve is needed to support  the cheek and jaw and keeps the             head in a horizontal plane. 

The top and bottom should be rounded edges with one side bulkier and the other less so like the Double P pillows. The two different heights allow a larger framed person -- such as me -- to sleep on the higher curve supporting my jaw or - when sleeping on my back - my upper cranium.  The lower side does the same for people with less bulky shoulders. 

             

3. The bottom of the foam is also curved so the pillow can rock somewhat back and forth - but not side to side: to allow for automatic fine-tuning adjustments.

Silent Sleeper head location

When sleeping on one’s side, the oblong, dead centre of the pillow is used. 

When switching to one’s back, there is a need to slightly slide down: so the bottom curved edge fully elevates the cranium (as illustrated above with the RED slope.)

Bottom Line

• Never, ever sleep on your back without your cranium raised high. 
• When lying on your side, whether you use a regular or specialty pillow, check that your spine-neck-head axis is horizontal by using a mirror, camera or a friend. 
• As your pillow only comes in contact with some 15% of your body, the mattress also needs to be considered.  All mattresses are designed to adjust to your body’s curves and weight distribution; but any given mattress may be ‘overly soft’ or ‘overly firm’ for your individual body. Also, wear over time may mean the mattress does not ‘fit’ you properly.
• Finally, try your own hand, as I did with my Silent Sleeper.

My snoring has been greatly reduced if not fully eliminated – as I do fidget and twist around at times when sleeping.  I also feel more rested in the morning and no longer wake up to a stiff neck and/or painful back.

So think about the facts and options mentioned above.

Remember, people spend close to 1/3 of their lifetime sleeping, so do it right:  for your own sake and for that of your bedmate or roommate.