Thursday, December 12, 2019

TECHNOLOGY 

Electric Cars – Achilles Heel #3 

By now, most people know of two major shortcomings of all electric vehicles (EV): 

1. Range anxiety –Gasoline and diesel cars regularly get 600+ km per fill up of a standard 64 litre tank. That is much, much further than any EV manufacturer’s distance claims. 

More importantly, manufacturer’s advertised maximum distances assume limited passenger weight (usually just the driver), minimal heavy storage items, no rolling hills, and no need for air conditioning in the summer nor running the heater on high in the winter. 

As reported in an earlier blog, an EV highway test drive by a CBC film crew -- 4 adults and camera equipment—had their range drop by almost 50% in cold winter driving with a ‘loaded vehicle’. They only got to their Detroit Auto Show by driving the last leg without the heater on (shivering with cold), at reduced speed (so they were hours late) and with the battery almost empty![i] 

Studies by the Idaho National Laboratory, as reported by the U.S. government, show a loss of 25% to 29% in range during winter in just city, low speed driving.[ii] 

 2. Refueling Time – Like your smartphone, EVs take numerous hours to recharge: overnight at home or in the day at the office/workplace from 6 hours to 10 hours using regular 120V current. 

Superchargers that supply electricity far faster are available with special equipment ; to speed things up by a factor of 2 to 4 to 8 to a maximum 150kW rapid charger. 

 But it takes a 2019 Tesla model S with 75KW battery 21 hours – YES, twenty-one hours - at standard house 120V current to achieve a range of 238 miles, and with the hyper fast 150kW charger, it still requires 1 (one) hour for a (theoretical) 300 miles range.[iii] 

(A gasoline powered car, by comparison, can fill up for 370 miles or more (600+ km) in just five (5) minutes or so!) 

The 3rd Achilles Heel 

Now, a third key weakness or issue of EVs is becoming publicized. The batteries themselves and their ‘life cycle’ are problematic. 

  1. Battery power and Life expectancy

The batteries used today in EVs are Lithium ion, the ‘best’ technology currently available. 

But like every battery – from your watch to your alarm clock to your smoke detector or emergency flashlight, over time, power weakens and batteries go dead. Using or storing any battery in a wet or cold environment (i.e., winter) or super-hot setting (summer) increase power loss and deterioration. 

The very act of recharging a battery also reduces its life. 

Yes, expect a 20% power reduction after 8 years with a normal 120V recharging and a loss of 30% or more if using a fast recharger! [iv]

And, according to expert Jason Mueller, lithium ion batteries are “most stable” at a 50% charge, so one needs to be careful. Letting it charge too long overheats the battery (i.e., it becomes dangerous) unless allowed to cool down for one to two hours before starting to drive. (So use a timer.)[v] 

Simply put, the laws of chemistry are the same for all batteries. 

   2.Battery replacement costs 

 As these batteries account for up to 40% of the price of a vehicle, replacing them becomes prohibitive. 

 For example, the 2017 Chevy Bolt (base model) with a 60KW battery had a MSRP in Canada of $46,500 [vi]. Its GM battery pack replacement cost was $15,734.29 [vii]. That’s 34% of the car’s price. 

Manufacturer battery warranties are usually 8 years or 100,000 miles for a reason.[viii] 

And there have been enough 2012 Model S cars whose batteries have ‘failed’ --after just 7 years -- to warrant Tesla building its own battery recycling plant.[ix] (See further below,)

All batteries degenerate and die! Congratulation on buying your replacement car in under 10 years. 

In comparison, internal combustion engines last up to 200,000 miles or more [x] (= 320,000 km). 

I personally have had 3 cars since 1995 that did so. 

I also know of two Volvo owners who have gone past 1,000,000 km, and there are two Volvo cars on record – still running – with just under or just over 3,000,000 miles – YES, three million miles [xi] (=4,828,032km)! 

  3. Raw materials - especially lithium and cobalt 

EV batteries require numerous metals in large quantities: aluminum, manganese, nickel, rare cobalt, rare lithium (12 kg per Model S 70kWh [xii]) and even graphite (at a whopping 54 kg in each Model S 85kWh car [xiii]). Also copper. 

 These require additional mining or other extraction processes. In particular, cobalt and lithium have raised major concerns by environmentalists, local indigenous communities and human right advocates. 

Cobalt is unique as a metal as any exposure can be deadly. It is simply toxic [xiv]  and requires special protective clothing when being mined or used in manufacturing. 

The State of New Jersey warns that cobalt dust exposure can lead to asthma, lung scaring, and cause heart, thyroid, liver and kidney damage. Contact with the skin is also damaging [xv]. 

 Also, 60% of the world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic Congo. There, it is easily dug up near the surface or in deep tunnels underground with hand tools. 

Unfortunately, workers are not supplied with any needed, protective clothing, including some 35,000 children are used for this work. Conditions are hazardous and deadly. Violence and child rape are commonplace [xvi] . 

The DRC also has for decades been politically unstable with mass displacement of people, massacres and other human rights violations as noted by the UN and Human Rights Watch [xvii]. 

Currently, political instability and warfare by over 140 armed groups have forced 4.5 million people from their homes and, out of a population of just over 81 million, 13 million rely on international aid donations of some US 1.7 billion! [xviii] 


As for lithium, the key ingredient in Lithium ion batteries, this rare metal is currently in such high demand for smartphones, laptops, tablets, AA, AAA and 9 V batteries that the addition of electric cars – if manufactured in the millions -- is highly problematic.

Two recent articles have highlighted the problems: the UK’s Wired on Energy, “The spiralling environmental cost of our lithium battery addiction” (online, Aug 5, 2018) and Canada’s Maclean’s magazine, “The Lithium Paradox” (January 2020, pages 80-81). [xix]

 1. EVs need enormous amounts of lithium. 

Depending on vehicle size, most EV require between 5kg to 10 kg of pure lithium in its batteries. (Tesla Model S 70kWh requires 12 kg as noted above, and its 100kWh vehicles must use even more.) So to replace the planet’s 1.2 billion gas/diesel powered vehicles (cars and SUVs and trucks) would require from 6 billion kilograms (6,000,000,000 kg) to 12,00,000,000 kg of purified lithium to be extracted from the earth. I.e., an increase of current mining production of well over 8,000% ! [xx] 

 2. Lithium is rare. 

Viable large quantities are found almost exclusively in China, Australia, and the ‘lithium triangle’ of Bolivia, Argentina and Chile which account for over 50% of world reserves. (Business Insider gives the South American reserves as 75% of world supply. [xxi]) 

 3. Local communities and environmentalists now oppose lithium extraction/mining. 

Yes, local communities and environmental activists in these South American countries (and even China) are resisting further lithium mining and pressuring governments to stop.

Bolivia’s president just canceled a US$1.3 billion deal as local communities and environmental groups protested even starting any mining in the country’s Salar de Uyuni salt flats.


And similarly Argentinian local communities and environmental organizations are also rising up to stop lithium mining expansion. Using hunger strikes and blockades. 

Why the opposition? 


  • Because these salt flats, whether in South America or China’s Tibetan border, are arid zones with limited water, but lithium extraction uses UK 500,000 gallons of water for every tonne of lithium (= US 600,000 gallons), often consuming up to 65% of available water in an area.[xxii]


Similar to oil fracking, rigs drill deep into salt flats and insert pressurized chemicals mixed with fresh water to release and force up lithium brine solutions. These are then transferred to huge ponds for evaporation by the sun over 12 to 18 months or longer. [xxiii]


  • Because the numerous and huge evaporation ponds are ‘toxic cesspools’ open to the air and affecting air quality; and can also leak into nearby streams and into the ground to affect water tables and drinking wells. 

 In downstream Tibet, there have been reports of streams and rivers filled with dead floating fish, cows and yaks. Even in the USA with its small, traditional rock mining approach (same as that of Australia) “Research in Nevada found impacts on fish as far as 150 miles downstream from a lithium processing operation.” [xxiv]

And in South America, local communities and environmentalists complain about similar pollution of streams used for human and animal drinking water, contaminated irrigation channels and ”leaving the landscape marred by mountains of discarded salt”.[xxv]

So, the trade-off of land and environmental destruction in order to advance a ‘green’ vehicle movement – or DRC human rights violations - is no longer acceptable for many communities, their elected governments and environmental protection activists hoping to ‘save the planet’. 

4. Recycling is in its infancy. 

The problems of recycling discarded lithium ion car batteries is also discussed in the 2018 Wired article. Lithium Ion batteries have exploded in recycling plants and it is very tricky to disassemble and separate materials. 

Wired, in fact, has 4 paragraphs detailing ongoing research in how to do so safely as we are still at the bottom of the ‘learning curve’. 

This is important to note as many may have come across an internet article by EV advocate Kristen Hall-Geisler which glows about how Tesla “recycles the cooling fluid, wires and electronics in its batteries. The rest is smashed to smithereens, melted down, separated into component metals and recycled.” [xxvi]

However, her article, “How Green are Automotive Lithium-Ion Batteries?", republished in 2019 by HowStuffWorks.com, was originally produced and posted on December 6, 2011 -- and is/was simply wishful thinking. 

I do not know if she was referring to Elon Musk’s original, super luxury and limited edition (under 2,500) Roadster (2008-2012) based on the Lotus Elite chassis,[xxvii]           but Tesla’s first mass produced vehicle, the Model S, only rolled off the assembly line in 2012; and any recycling of batteries of its fleet since then and up to 2019 has been done by third party recyclers

As quoted in the advance publicity blurb on Green Car Reports, April 16, 2019, “The new facility should also save significant expenses and pollution from shipping batteries overseas to be recycled, where many of the third-party recyclers are located.” [xxviii]


Final word 

The Maclean’s article closes with a solution recommended by Argentinian environmentalist, Pia Marchegiani: Forget about Lithium ion batteries for personal vehicles and instead promote battery powered public transit

The Northern Hemisphere’s materialistic world and extravagance must stop

(I.e., USA, Canada, Europe, and even Russia and China.) 

**** Welcome to the push back from local, indigenous communities and environmentalists!


[ii] https://www.energy.gov/eere/electricvehicles/maximizing-electric-cars-range-extreme-temperatures  The article includes tips to extend range: such as use A/C or heater sparingly,  brake slowly, and drive within city speed limits.
[iii] https://pod-point.com/guides/driver/how-long-to-charge-an-electric-car  This 2019 updated site is filled with useful comparisons and tips for potential EV owners.
[iv] https://www.clippercreek.com/extend-life-ev-battery/   Also numerous tis to protect battery life and range.
[v] Ibid.
[ix] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1122631_tesla-launches-battery-recycling-at-nevada-gigafactory
[xii] https://www.quora.com/How-much-lithium-in-kg-is-used-in-an-electric-car  The solution, lithium carbonate, weighs 63 kg per car.
[xviii] Ibid.
[xx] The article quotes 8,840% which includes batteries to store wind and solar power energy.
[xxiii] Ibid.
[xxiv] Ibid.
[xxv] Ibid.
[xxviii] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1122631_tesla-launches-battery-recycling-at-nevada-gigafactory



Monday, November 4, 2019

Recent news: reality collides with solar and wind turbine dreams while Nature rages on


Renewable energy – a delusional dream

The dream of the world relying 100% on solar and wind turbine electricity just crashed -- at least for Canada (and northern U.S.A.).

John Gorman, a former Chair of the Solar Industries Association and a 20 year advocate for solar and wind turbine energy, has now conceded that these 'renewable' electricity sources have serious limitations imposed by Nature[i].

Solar panels only work during sunlight hours.  At best, that averages out to 12 of every 24 hours, and then cloud cover, rain and snow reduce their output. 

 Similarly, wind turbines are limited to areas were the winds blow continually and strongly; (thankfully) not the normal situation over most of the planet.

Finally, he notes, efforts to create super-batteries for their power storage have failed.

However, his aversion to 'fossil fuel' oil and gas power generation is so intense that he has fallen for the lunacy of nuclear power!

He is now President and CEO of the Canadian Nuclear Association, and repeats the nuclear industry's propaganda of cheap and safe energy:  ignoring Fukashima and Chernobyl and Three Mile Island, where human error and the vagaries and rages of Nature (i.e., tsunami or earthquake) immediately and over time kill all exposed people,  and leaving  vast areas radioactive zones for centuries!

Europe is shutting down all its nuclear plants as such an event would make Europe and its cities - Paris, Amsterdam, Rome, Berlin and all the  rest 'uninhabitable’[ii].  

Only ‘natural’ gas, oil and abundant coal can supply a reliable stream of power and electricity to Canada, northern U.S.A. and similar climates where during half the year - the coldest half--sunlight hours drop to under 9 hours in Montreal, Toronto and Seattle; Calgary to under 7 hours,[iii] and with communities in Alaska and the far north even less: Anchorage under 6 hrs, Fairbanks under 4 hours, and some further north such as Barrow, NO sunlight for 67 days![iv]


In truth, the only ‘safe’ and reliable sources of energy -- 24/7 year round -- are ‘natural’  gas, oil and even coal.

2.      Wildfires - Canada
With the coming of fall and cooler temperatures, wildfire season in Canada has come to an end. As explained by Professor Eric B. Kennedy of York University’s Disaster and Emergency Management program in York University Magazine, Fall 2019[v], our wildfires mostly start in remote mountain areas not visited by humans but subject to Nature's lightning strikes.

New techniques to minimize spreading by creating forest 'gaps', - i.e., controlled burns and clear cutting,  avoiding building homes too close to forests, using fire retardant building materials, and emergency fire retardant sprays, are proving successful

Moreover, as he points out, a better understanding of how forests work and regenerate has altered the attitude and approach to wildfires by academics,  governments and those in the field. 

Wildfires are now recognized to be an essential part of Nature's normal  'plan': to allow for new growth and promote biodiversity.

So much for the fears of and links to Global Warming!


3.      Wildfires – California

Annual wildfire season has again returned to northern and southern California.

Despite the rhetoric and common media assertions, California’s northern and southern wildfires are not due to Global Warming.

The causes are well known meteorological patterns that are centuries old and documented from the mid-19th century[vi]  -- and local human activity.

California fires are due to a complex of Natural and human factors.

1.    Winter rains.  Surprisingly, ample winter rainfall makes wildfire season more dangerous. 
For the first time in 8 years, California received above average rainfall and was no longer a drought zone[vii].   But such rainfall makes wildfire season worse as it allowed for rapid and extensive growth of grasses, weeds and brush[viii] – all of which become fire spreaders in wildfire season.

2.      Hot, dry summer and fall.  California’s beautiful sunny and hot beach weather starting in mid-June through July and August is a period of increasing vegetation dryness. This dryness continues through September-October-November – i.e., wildfire season -- when brush, open grass and forest trees become ‘bone dry’. 




3.      Winds. California’s regular northern Diablo winds and southern Santa Ana winds. During autumn, they blow dry Nevada desert air westward across California’s mountain ranges with gusts up to 80 mph, hurricane level 1 force [ix].

As such, their dry air adds to the desiccation of vegetation and trees, and their blowing winds rapidly spread ignited fires and carry airborne burning embers and branches far and wide.[x]

4.      Human habitation.   1 in every 4 people living in California ( = 25%) are at risk of property loss and loss of life during normal wildfire seasons as they live too close to forests and grass and brush areas: all potential ‘matches’.

The state now advises everyone to create a 100 foot radius ‘clear’ zone around their homes and buildings/barns: removing all brush, weeds and grass growth[xi].


So, under these combined circumstances, wildfires can be sparked and spread easily during this period. 


TRIGGERS

As lightning strikes are rare in these months, the triggers are of human origin.
 
Smoldering campfires, flicked burning cigarettes and arsonist have long been blamed[xii], but, as of 2018 and a series of lawsuits,  it is now clear the major causes of California’s worst wildfires are the electricity grid and overhead transmission lines crossing forested areas.

When gusting winds – up to 60 mph and even 80 mph - blow overhead high voltage lines against dry, flammable tree tops, sparking results and the trees and forest ignite!

Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) transmission lines were found to have started 19 major wildfires in 2017-2018, including the Camp Fire that killed 86 people and burned to the ground the town of Paradisevi.

This year already, PG&E has acknowledged its transmission lines were the trigger for three current fires, and Southern California Edison (SCE) has acknowledge the Sim Valley wildfire may be due to its transmission equipment ,and has acknowledge its transmission lines “contributed” to last November’s massive Woolsey Fire.[xiii]

And PG&E, struggling to revive after Chapter 11 bankruptcy, has become ‘pro-active’ this season and is shutting down major transmission lines as a preventative measure[xiv],  thereby cutting off electricity to an estimated 2,500,000 people – yes, TWO AND A HALF MILLION – in at least 36 counties[xv]

PG&E has further stated such power 'cut offs' will continue for the next 10 years until it can resolve the transmission wire issues: i.e., by clearing away adjoining treesvi.


In summary, wildfires are a double edged sword.

They are Nature’s way to clear underbrush debris and deadwood and allow for regrowth and forest diversity on the one hand.

But they are also major threats to human life and habitation when human activity gets ‘too close’ -- with even brush and grass becoming ‘kindling”.

And, electricity and its long distance transmission through the skies is now acknowledged as a major fire hazard when hung  too close to tree tops.

These lessons from Canada and California, need to be apply everywhere.


Blame Climate Change/Global Warming and CO2?

For all the anxiety and Climate Change fears constantly promoted by media coverage of any and all ‘negative’ weather events, and it standard villain, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, remember:  CO2 emissions are what keep this planet alive!  

All plants on land and in the oceans: trees, grass, shrubs crops, vegetables and fruits, sea weed and kelp -- need CO2 to live and grow

And, in exchange, all plants exhale O2 (oxygen) -- without which all animal and human life would end!

This is Nature's miraculous, symbiotic process -- photosynthesis. 

Today, the atmosphere - when totally dry of any water vapour - consists of 78.08% Nitrogen (N2), 20.95% Oxygen (O2), 0.93%  Argon, with all other gases combined amounting to under 1%![xvi]

Specifically, the atmosphere contains a mere 0.0416% Carbon Dioxide (CO2) or just over 4 molecules of CO2 in every 10,000 molecules of air.  And at 0.000187%, Methane (CH4) – the new ‘other villain’ -- which breaks down in 10 years into CO2 and H2O (water vapour) [xvii]-accounts for a miniscule, just under 2 molecules for every 1,000,000 – yes, one MILLION – molecules of air.

Fixation on their impact on the atmosphere and any heating effect is laughable, except it has become standard scientific dogma.


The most important factor for any change in Climate is H2O (water), the material that covers well over 71% of the planet in streams and rivers and lakes, and to enormous depths in oceans, and ice capped mountains and glaciers[xviii].  

Water (H2O) as airborne ‘moisture’ and clouds, accounts on averages for between 2% and 3%[xix]  of the atmosphere, and, depending on location and temperature, can range from  0% to 3%[xx] or even 4%[xxi].

The atmosphere holds about 3,100 mi3 (12,900 km3) of water at any one time - mostly in the form of water vapor.  If it all fell as precipitation at once, the Earth would be covered with only about  1 inch of water.[xxii]

Furthermore, the bizarre fixation on CO2 as a Climate Change mega-force is undermined by the recent, August, 2019 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  Buried in its laments about planet’s deterioration due to human fossil fuel burning and animal husbandry, it did acknowledge that in the 10 years up to 2016 (its data base), the planet and its “forests, wetlands and other land systems soaked up 11.2 billion metric tons more carbon dioxide (CO2) per year than they emitted.”[xxiii]  [My red and underlining.]

I.e., the planet has been a NET SINK for CO2 for at least 10 years!!!

That this extra absorption will continue for many more years was also admitted by Louis Verchot, the lead author of the study, but he warned: “this additional gift from nature is not going to continue for ever.”[xxiv]

As well, according to a NASA study published in Nature Climate Change, April 25, 2016, “a quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.”[xxv] [My red and italics]
Similarly, controlled NASA experiments with various crops as published in Nature Climate Change, April 18, 2016, show increasing CO2 levels produce more abundant crops and while reducing the amount of water needede.[xxvi]

Put simply, increases in atmospheric  CO2 , as acknowledged above, has not been harmful as the plants of the Earth absorb the increase -- and flourished as a result.

Maybe, the vegetation of the planet has been in a state of ‘starvation’ for millennia and only now is the needed CO2 levels starting to rise and correct the imbalance.

After all, how is it that reciprocal photosynthesis has created such an abundance  of atmospheric  oxygen (21%) and such a miniscule level of carbon dioxide (under 0.05%)?

Is it possible all animal life is relying on oxygen produced by plants eon’s ago?

Unfortunately,  lingering fears of global warming and its misguided link to CO2 still rule the scientific community, the media and the public mindset.


Maybe the news presented in this blog will let ‘fresh air’ sink in:

·         Renewable solar and wind are not the panacea solution, and reliable, 24/7 energy generation will always been needed.  Aside from  hydro-electricity, the only safe and readily distributable sources are natural gas, oil and even coal.

·         Wildfires can be positive, natural events allowing areas for regrowth and promoting diversity .

·         But when they spread too close to human habitation -- by the natural forces of wind and/or  careless stringing of overhead electricity wiring, disaster results.

·         Living near such flammable areas is unwise, and requires careful planning and use of flame resistant building materials and ‘clear zones’ to separate humans from the trees and brush and wild grass.  Less pretty scenery, but a life saving necessity.

·         Finally, for all the raving against CO2 emissions, the planet is doing quite well, thank you.  As the 2016 and 2019 reports admit, the planet loves the extra, life giving CO2 being emitted into the atmosphere.
  





[i] Globe and Mail,  October 24, 2019, B4, “Nuclear energy is an important part of solving the climate crisis”.
[v] “The Burning Season”, pages 14-19.
[ix] content://com.sec.android.app.sbrowser/readinglist/1031075524.mhtml
[x] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-santa-ana-winds-expected-to-whip-up-new-wildfires-in-california-after/
[xiii] content://com.sec.android.app.sbrowser/readinglist/1031075524.mhtml
[xv] https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/npr/npr-story/773424410
[xvi] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth
[xvii] https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/outreach/info_activities/pdfs/CTA_the_methane_cycle.pdf
[xviii] https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/water-science-school/science/where-earths-water?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects
[xix] https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Water_vapour
[xx] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth
[xxi] https://www.thoughtco.com/water-vapor-in-the-earths-atmosphere-609407
[xxii] https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/water-science-school/science/how-much-water-there-earth
[xxiii] Time magazine, AuGust 26, 2019, page 12, “Can changing what we eat stop climate change?”
[xxiv] Ibid.