GAIA

 

how NOT to save Africa's elephants

 

Again, as happens every few years, another African country has initiated a burn off of its massive stockpile of elephant tusks seized from ivory poachers.

    

In this case, the country is Kenya and the mass burn off began March 3, World Wildlife Day. It will continue to the end of the year and will destroy a stockpile of seized elephant tusks amounting to 100 metric tons. (Time,  March 16, 2015, p15.)  

The giant pyres make for a good photo ops as world media cover the spectacular bonfires and government officials get positive publicity and world accolades for their determination and efforts to stop the slaughter of Africa's wild elephants by poachers.

 

I blog about this every few years as this government destruction of hundreds of thousands of tusks is misguided and in fact helps preserve and perpetuate the poaching industry!

Put simply, the fires and tusk destruction  violate the basic principle of Economics 101: supply and demand.

Yes, Western nations are outlawing the use and import of objects made with elephant ivory: from beautifully carved figurines and jewelry created by highly skilled craftsmen and artists in the Middle and Far East to piano keys and violin bow ends.

 

But demand in over half the world continues to be strong and will continue to grow as more and more people in China and India and adjoining countries become more prosperous and can afford ivory items long held as highly desirable works of art.¹

 

So demand will not -- in the near or even mid-range future -- decline.

 

As for the market 'supply' part of the equation, put simply, governments destroying vast quantities of seized tusks simply ensures 'supply' will be reduced to what poachers can steal -- thereby ensuring the price for ivory will continue to be high and poaching lucrative for the gang leaders and middlemen.

 

Since 2010, it is estimates some 30,000 to 35,000 elephants are killed each year for their tusks², i.e. for 60,000 to 70,000 tusks (at two per elephant). 

 As just under 40 tons represent 4000 dead elephants³, the 100 metric tons to be destroyed in Kenya by the government represents some 10,000 dead elephants – or some 1/3 of all elephants killed annually!!!.

 

As well, with the current going rate in China of $2,100.00 per kilogram of ivory (triple what it was 4 years ago)⁴, the 100 metric tons to be destroyed would be worth $210,000,000.00.

 

If African governments and/or some international organization such as the UN would sell the confiscated tusks in a controlled manner -- and funnel the profits into animal welfare programs and educational campaigns in the East and Middle East -- an increase of legitimate ivory on the open market would substantially reduce poaching and may even squeeze out poacher networks.

Confiscated tusks -- instead of being pointlessly destroyed in a show of bravado -- could be sold and turned into a positive.

 

________________________

1. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/aug/14/china-boom-fuels-africa-poaching

2. http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28842965

3. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/09/what-is-it-about-an-elephants-tusks-that-make-them-so-valuable/262021/

4. http://iworry.org/smuggled-elephant-ivory-price-triples-2100-per-kg-china/

 

 

GAIA and MEDIA

 

Canada must return to the Fahrenheit scale

This morning, January 20, 2015, 680New radio announced by 8:00 a.m. that Toronto Public Health had declared an Extreme Cold Weather Alert warning.

 

The high today was forecast as -5 C and the low a -12 C with winds at night creating a wind chill factor of up to -19 C.

 

The on-line Toronto Star today has a critical article attacking Toronto Public Health and the system in general for not declaring a Cold Weather Alert for Monday when a man died overnight at a bus shelter dressed in a T-shirt and shorts. [http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2015/01/06/how_many_torontonians_does_it_take_to_declare_an_extreme_cold_weather_alert_keenan.html]

 

Last week, as well, 680News radio reported that a Toronto councilor has recommended the city treat temperatures below -10 Celsius as hazardous and activate emergency weather centres and warnings.  

 

680News also ran some ads warning that hypothermia can occur even if the temperature is above 0 Celsius. 

It also reported a study which found that people's body temperature drops when shown a video of cold weather conditions.  An example of the power of mind over body.

And 680News, in its 4 times per hour weather reports, continues to treat temperatures below -5 Celsius as 'dangerously cold’ if wind chill is taken into account.

 

Now I am not a fan of winter cold.  I do not ski or skate and wish every homeless person had access to heated daytime areas and permanent homes, but as someone living in the second warmest part of Canada outside of the Vancouver area, I find the attack on normal Canadian weather disconcerting.

According to the American National Weather Service chart at

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winter/windchill.shtml,  on a calm, windless day, only below  -50 F (-46 C) can one get frostbite in less than 5 minutes on exposure body parts.  Yes, frostbite can occur in 5 minutes at higher temperatures such as -10 F  (-23.33 C)  but only if you are uncovered in 60 mile per hour winds—but how often do you go out in gale force weather!

Environment Canada’s website ( http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=d9553ab5-1#extremeCold)  states that for South-central and Southwestern Ontario it does not declare a cold weather alert unless “the temperature or wind chill is expected to reach minus 30°C for at least two hours”.

 

But over the last two years the Extreme Cold Weather Alert threshold used by 680News is no longer the long time standard of a temperature of -15 C (still Toronto’s official criteria) but initially was a wind chill factor of -25 C and since last winter a wind chill of -17 Celsius. 

 

Adding wind chill as a factor, however, has always been questionable because buildings and even street homes minimize or block and eliminate the wind factor.

And if a Toronto councilor has his way, the extreme cold weather trigger would rise to a -10 Celsius -- and be in effect most nights in the GTA from mid-December through January and February!

 

The reality is that Toronto at least is having an unusually mild winter so far: warmer temperatures and only one modest snow storm. 

 

Yes, the homeless and anyone who goes out in summer dress in sub-zero Celsius temperatures for any length of time is at risk, but that is not the norm for the 2.79 million people of Toronto today and the 5.5 million in the GTA  (Greater Toronto Area).

But the mindset – whether a perverse side effect of the belief Global Warming should increase our winter temperatures, self-interest to make weather 'newsworthy' and to get an  audience by exaggeration and hype, or well-meaning advocates for the poor --  feeds into the psychology of cold found in the aforementioned study.

If we are constantly bombarded with weather reports that treat normal or mild winter weather as 'dangerously cold' , our minds will take over and make us actually feel colder – fulfilling the false media message.

 

To defend and protect us from this psychological paranoia, I suggest that Canada officially revert to Fahrenheit from Celsius,  or at least have forecasts give both numbers and ensure we teach Fahrenheit to all school age children.

We switched to Celsius as part of metrication some 40 years ago but the U.S.A. did not and kept the more useful – and psychologically better – Fahrenheit scale.

On the Celsius scale, water freezes at 0 C and boils at 100 C, but on the Fahrenheit scale, that freezing point is 32 F and the boiling point is 212 F.

Consequently our American cousins do not get psychologically upset if the outdoors in winter are even close to 0 F = -17.8 C.   After all, NFL Superbowl playoffs and even the ‘big game’ have been e played outdoors in frigid January weather.

The aptly nicknamed Freezer Bowl (January 1982) was played in the coldest temperature in NFL history in terms of wind chill.  Air temperature was −9 °F (−23 °C), but with a sustained wind of 27 miles per hour (43 km/h), the wind chill was −37 °F or −38 °C.  For The Ice Bowl, the 1967 final, the game-time temperature at Lambeau Field was about −15 °F (−26 °C), with an average wind chill around −36 °F (−38 °C)                  [All figures using the current, revised National Weather Service wind chill index]. (See Wikipedia.)    

Certainly  we often see U.S. and Canadian football games with snow falling and gusty winds and heaters on the side to keep players from hypothermia.

So, maybe the best gift you can give and get at Christmas or Chanukah or Kwanza or Chinese New Year is a Fahrenheit thermometer – and the chance to stay ‘mentally’ warm.

YOUR HEALTH and MEDIA

Obesity’s new Big News twist

Obesity became headline news in Canada again on November 21, 2014 when Canada’s “Nation Newspaper”, the Globe and Mail, gave the topic centre stage on a section cover and half-page inside.

What is noteworthy is the following:

1. The coverage was in the BUSINESS section (B1 and B12) and not the expected LIFE or Science and Medicine areas.

2. Consequently the focus was on MONEY and the costs of the pandemic:   US$2 trillion dollars in medical and related treatment costs which amount to 2.8% of global GDP.

3. A chart of major social problems lists world-wide obesity ‘costs’ in 2012 at US$2 trillion and 2.8% of global GDP, i.e., ONLY  third after smoking (US$2.1 trillion; 2.9% GDP) and war/terrorism/violence (US$2.1 trillion; 2.8% GDP).  Alcoholism is listed at #4 at US$1.4 trillion and 2.0% GDP and illiteracy next at US$1.3 trillion and 1.7 % of GDP.  Climate change and Air pollution – if combined – would be US$1.9 trillion and 3.0 % of GDP in 2008.

4. A world map which clusters countries by their 2008 percentage of obese people and also the per capita GPD per country.

 

Consequently, the G&M reporter sees obesity as a major drain on world finances in developed, developing and under-developed lands and bemoans its economic impact.

 

The data, however, especially the cluster map, suggest that the obesity ‘mania’ is on poor grounds and delusional! 

Firstly, as the chart mentioned in #3 above states, the list of “global social burden” is “SELECTED” and distorts the overall reality because it has chosen to pick and choose which issues to highlight.

So, the number one killer on the planet -- malnutrition is missing  from the list of “selected global social burdens” chart, as are malaria and other killer and debilitating world ravaging diseases.

(Didn’t is strike you as odd that in the 21th century SMOKING is still listed as the #1 social ‘burden’.)

As Wikipedia notes under “malnutrition”,  

Mortality due to malnutrition accounted for 58 percent of the total mortality in 2006: "In the world, approximately 62 million people, all causes of death combined, die each year. One in twelve people worldwide is malnourished and according to the Save the Children 2012 report, one in four of the world’s children are chronically malnourished.^{[37][38][dead link]} In 2006, more than 36 million died of hunger or diseases due to deficiencies in micronutrients".^[39]    [my underlining]

 

Yes, approximately 58% of all deaths on the planet are still related to malnutrition!!!

To cite further the World Hunger organization: (http://www.worldhunger.org/articles/Learn/world%20hunger%20facts%202002.htm)

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that nearly 870 million people of the 7.1 billion people in the world, or one in eight, were suffering from chronic undernourishment in 2010-2012. Almost all the hungry people, 852 million, live in developing countries, representing 15 percent of the population of developing counties. There are 16 million people undernourished in developed countries (FAO 2012).

As indicated by their chart below on wages and extreme poverty, starvation and low BMI scores is rampant and affecting over 1 in 6 people on the planet!!!!

Region	% in  $1.25 a day poverty	Population (millions)	Pop. in $1 a day poverty (millions)
East Asia and Pacific	16.8	1,884	316
Latin America and the Caribbean	8.2	550	45
South Asia	40.4	1,476	596
Sub-Saharan Africa	50.9	763	388
Total Developing countries	28,8	4673	1345
Europe and Central Asia	0.04	473	17
Middle East and North Africa	0.04	305	11
Total		5451	1372

Source:  See World Bank PovcalNet "Replicate the World Bank's Regional Aggregation" at

 

Secondly, the cluster map.     (NOTE: below percentages are approximates as the map only gives 5% differential bar lines.)

 With the exceptions of Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan (with obesity rates between 5%-13% of the population, the other countries with similarly low obesity rates are notorious for subsistence rural living, poverty and malnutrition affecting multi-millions of people: India (2%), Indonesia (5%), China (6%) and Thailand (9%).  (Just see the above chart from World Hunger!!!)

Why, all of a sudden Malaysia, at 14%, has TRIPLE the obesity rate of its nearby ‘twin’, Indonesia, is unexplained and raises issues as to the reliability of the data.

Brazil’s population is at 18% obese, Colombia’s at 17%  and Venezuela at whopping 31%!!!!  Yet all 3 are neighbouring countries and do not have a MacDonalds or Kentucky Fried Chicken outlet on almost every city and town corner as in the U.S.A. or Canada. So why so high on traditional diets – especially Venezuela?

Mexico, the only other Latino country recorded, is at an even higher 33% obese.  Again, are classic tortillas and the traditional Mexican diet bad?

The only African state is South Africa at an unbelievable 32% and the only recorded Arab state, Saudi Arabia is at a mind boggling 33%!!!  Again, these are not fast food havens and something else must be at work for these astronomical figures for obesity.

Europe -- from Britain through Russia -- ranges from about 17% (Switzerland) through Greece and Italy (the homes of the Mediterranean diet no less) at around 20% ,and Britain , Spain, Germany, Poland and Russia all have around 25-26% of their entire populations as obese.  So, 1 in 4 Brits, Spaniards, Germans, Poles and Russians – male and female --  is so fat that they should resemble bowling pins or outright bowling balls!  Is that reality?  

As for Canada, we are 25% obese as well while the U.S.A. matches Saudi Arabia at 33% -- to TIE as WORLD LEADERS!!!!.  

To give some detail on Canada, here is Statistics Canada 2012 report: [http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/82-625-x/2012001/article/11708-eng.htm]

In 2009 to 2011, 67% of Canadian men and 54% of Canadian women aged 18 to 79 were overweight or obese based on results from the Canadian Health Measures Survey... Men were significantly more likely to be overweight or obese than women. While approximately 3 out of 10 Canadian men had normal body weight, almost 7 out of 10 were overweight or obese. Among women, more than 4 out of 10 had a normal weight while more than 5 out of 10 were overweight or obese.  (my bold emphasis).

 

Of course, StatsCan is using the BMI measure as used by the World Health Organization and other data collecting/analysis groups.  And as I have argued many times before, it is a very flawed measurement scale. It  distorts what is ‘healthy’ and ‘normal’, targeting a very low body fat level as the ideal; unfairly lowering the bar too low compared to real world weights and cultural body image ideals.

When ‘data’ tells you the overwhelming majority of males and females in a country are overweight or obese, question the measurement standard and its assumptions; don’t target what real people are like and label them ‘abnormal’!

Don’t forget, only the modern West has ever idolized thin women: first as the 1920s flappers and thereafter in the Twiggy and subsequent fixation on the pre-pubescent female body shape and image of the catwalk!

As well, any NFL running back at 5’10’ and even just 215 lbs is calculated by the BMI as OBESE!  (See BMI calculator at http://www.calcbmi.com/). Brett Farr, the great quarterback, at 6’2” and in game condition weighing 222 lbs scores on the BMI as OVERWEIGHT and just below obese!!  Peyton Manning, in his on-field prime, at 6’5” and 230 lbs, is a BMI of 27.27 and OVERWEIGHT!!!

 

So, to Brian Milner, reporter, the Globe and Mail, the McKinsey Global Institute, and WHO and related UN organizations I say: “You need to do a quick ‘reality check’.”

If billions of dollars are being spent seeing doctors and dieting and taking medication and classes and therapy for excess weight because of a flawed ideal and BMI, maybe the media should challenge the accepted dogma.

Normally, people are only thin and have low body fat when continually hungry and somewhat or extremely malnourished!

And as more and more people rise from poverty, expect BMI overweight and obese numbers to rise – irrespective of the presence or absence of MacDonalds and Kentucky Fried Chicken, because eating regularly on even traditional food items adds weight.

And body fat, that emergency cushion against famine and drought and plague, automatically comes with eating.

That is nature’s law.

MEDIA and TECHNOLOGY

Has Apple lost its Mojo?

Apple’s recent annual showcase of new products in early September – in advance of the college school year and Christmas sales -- has received its usual excess of publicity in the days leading up to the event, the day of the event -  led by Apple’s Tom Cook and singer Bono -- and the day thereafter.

Unfortunately for Apple, most of the post-event news has been bad, bad and more bad.

Apple announced, as expected,:

1. the next generation iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus,

2. a smart watch

3. and a new app that allows instant payment using NFC technology thereby eliminating the need for and delay of credit cards or cash.

Immediately after the launch, the general media and many stock market experts praised the ‘new releases’ and ‘breakthroughs’ and advised people to buy, buy, buy Apple’s over-inflated stock.

 

iPhone 6 series

Yes, the iPhone 6 series has many improvements, as has every new iPhone in history as with all other manufacturers. The biggest and most important change and improvement was the introduction of two choices of much larger screens at 4.7 and 5.5 inches and , a major break from Steve Job’s the one-size fits all mindset.

While the bigger screens has already led to record pre-order sales and people from Australia onward have lined up for hours to get the new phones, anyone outside Apple loyalists and ‘groupies’ knows full well that the iPhone 6s are merely ‘catching up’ to Samsung and a host of other Android cell phone manufacturers who already have been offering the other upgrades and larger screens for up to 3 years now!!!  The screen of a Coolpad 9976A is 7 inches, Samsung Galaxy Mega is 6.3 inches, ZTE Boost 5.7 inches and Samsung’s new Note 4,  still at 5.7 inches is already considered superior to the iPhone Plus in various ways. (See comparative data from http://smartphones.findthebest.com/app-question/10/Which-smartphone-has-the-largest-screen-size and  Wikipedia, “galaxy Note”.)

Put simply, Apple is not leading this ‘revolution’ but trying to stay in the game, in a category that already has a name, “phablets”,   and which is the hottest segment of the cell phone market especially in Asia and China where big size screens rule! The Samsung Galaxy Note series, first released in the fall of 2011, has already sold over 50,000,000 units worldwide!!!

As well, the new complaints about the iPhone 6 Plus: that it is too long to fit into a pocket or backpack and BENDS – already tagged as “bendgate” - has already been solved by LG Flex with its CURVED smart phone which Apple’s iPhone 6 Plus copies in overall size and screen.  The LG Flex is great for back jean pockets even when sat on. My friend, who at 6”6” tall and some 275 lbs, has had no problems or butt pain since using his LG for months now.

Meanwhile, Samsung has introduced the Round with a curved horizontal screen which solves 3 key nuisances: it virtually eliminates reflection of your own face and the lighting behind you, blocks ambient light from the sides, and thereby allows for a sharper, more readable screen using less battery power.  The screen is also flexible and this too has benefits as outlined by http://www.displaymate.com/Galaxy_Round_ShootOut_1.htm.

 

So, put simply, even the oversized and novel Apple’s iPhone 6 plus is neither leading edge nor the best design on the market.  LG and Samsung are way ahead.

 

Apple smart watch

As for the Apple smart watch, this too is a late comer to a market segment with Samsung and Sony and LG and Motorola and of course Pebble and others already having the same product out for at least 6 months to 3 years!!! (See the comparison at http://smartwatches.findthebest.com/)

And two days after the launch Apple announced its smart watch is still not ready for sale due to “technical considerations”, and will only be released “sometime in 2015”!!!

When the key feature hyped is the fact the wrist strap comes in 3 colours and an 18 carat gold version, it says it all:  only the glitzy bling factor and snob appeal differentiate this new smart watch from the rest of the already extensive pack.   So much for Apple innovation and leadership – again.

 

Apple Pay

Finally, while trying to pitch its new instant purchase app in hope of mimicking iTunes great success, Apple is overly optimistic if not delusional and again distorts what is reality already happened in this area.

NFC technology, which allows a smart phone to face a vending machine or counter pay terminal and complete an instant ‘sale’, is OLD NEWS and has been used widely in Japan for some two decades!!!    As mentioned in my earlier blog, Blackberry, Samsung and many other manufacturers have had NFC capable smart phones for the longest time.

Put simply, we in North America are at the tail end of the technological innovation (retail) market – which begins with Japan, then the rest of Asia, then Europe and finally the U.S.A. and Canada!!!

For Apple to laud itself for entering the NFC race years after many other cell phone manufacturers is pathetic and a sad joke!!

The fact that this ‘new product’ will not be offered immediately in Canada is truly embarrassing and may offend loyal Apple-philes in the True North, but there is really no need for Apple Pay.

Firstly, Canada already has NFC service available from our major banks who have already created their own apps for this:  CIBC, TD, Royal Bank, Bank of Montreal, Scotia Bank and others.  As they control the Visa and MasterCard business in Canada, instant purchases using NFC with be available everywhere once you simply:

            a. buy and install to your android smart phone a NFC SIM card                     purchased from Bell, Rogers, TELUS or other network provider

            b. download your bank’s free app

            c.  find a vending machine or payment machine upgraded to NFC

 

So why need an Apple Pay app?  Who knows?  The boat has already left on this one.  Apple is delusional if it thinks the banks and credit card companies and Coscos and Macys and gas station companies will pay it a commission to ‘middle man’ what they can do themselves with a simple app which they themselves control.

 Non-Apple phones that already are available with NFC capability are Blachberry 9000, Samsung Galaxy S3, S4, S5. Samsung Galaxy Note 2, Note 3, Galaxy S4 Mini and HTC One. (TD website list.)

 

Mojo lost

So, to all the loyal and faithful Apple product buyers, let me conclude:  Apple makes good products and often they look cooler than the competition, but as for innovation and leadership re: technology, Apple is no longer heads and shoulders above the rest – if this ever was the case. 

Today, it is simply ‘faking it’ and using hype and bluster and self-serving accolades to cover up the simple fact that re: innovation, it has lost its mojo.  It is hoping against hope that its fans and the general media and the stock market do not notice that this emperor no longer rules!

 

P.S. Other problems: 

Late September -- iOS8 update -- which was released with the iPhone 6 series -- has had to be withdrawn as it was found to have connectivity glitches and rapid battery draining.

October 7, 2014 – Collateral damage -- thanks to Apple -- is its joint partner, GT Advanced Technologies Inc. which has had to declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It had begun building an Arizona plant to build sapphire screens for the new iPhone 6 and other Apple products but Apple has decided not to use sapphire glass across its iPhones and other devices.

Apple, as joint partner, lost a bundle but will not miss a billion dollars here or there.  Not so for its trusting partner!  (Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2014 story.)  

 

October 17 – New and improved iPad Air 2  is not expected by analysts to save the day as Apple iPad sales are slowing down and competitors are expanding their market share as they offer the same or ‘more’ for less cost.  (G&M, B3)

More importantly, the tablet market is reaching saturation—just as the PC desktop market before it --  as too many people already have one or more tablets. And, simultaneously, the niche market is being made redundant as smart phones become bigger and bigger.

 Put simply, Samsung, LG and even now Apple are cannibalizing their tablet lines with their larger smart phones.  

Maybe that is why Apple is 'diversifying' into watches and NFC payment as the old bread and butter computer hardware market is drying up.