1984 Redux

Friday, January 26, 2018

Technology and Our New World

China is the future

China is currently the world’s second largest and most powerful ecomony – only surpassed by the U.S.A. -- for the moment.

But with the world’s largest population and a dedication to mass education, literacy and scientific progress, China is on the verge of becoming the world’s economic and technological leader.

Once capitalism was allowed to emerge, China’s economy has blossomed in mere decades and generated world class and dominant companies.

Jack Ma’s 18 year old Alibaba is the world’s largest retailer and operates in 200 countries. Its online sales and profits surpassed Walmart, Amazon and eBay combined since 2015.
It has been expanding into the media industry and entering the electric and self-driving automotive markets as Ma continues to expand the world-wide reach of his multi-billion dollar empire.

Chinese web browser, Baidu, created in 2000, is now a world leader and marketer of internet technologies an AI and its various products under the DU banner and has 13 computer support award-winning products currently – with more on the way (See Wikipedia).

And while the U.S. with its population of 325,000,000 people graduates 30,000 engineers a year, China, with 3.4 BILLION people, graduated 300,000!

Chinese state controlled corporations are also now reaching around the globe to buy up coal and other key minerals for its factories and industries: from Africa to South America to Canada. Agricultural land as well – as in Africa. And Canada now is being challenged by Chinese government affiliated corporations trying to buy up nursing homes to high end tech companies.

Add to this today’s headline story: the successful cloning macaque monkeys, a major breakthrough in the field -- and only steps aware from human cloning -- took place at the Academy of Science in Shanghai, by an all-Chinese research team! (G&M, January 25, A1, A3).

Finally, the younger scions of those who have power or are the captains of capitalism now flaunt the Communist, minimalist mindset by driving Lamborghinis and Ferraris and other exotic pricey cars, and, as recently covered by the Globe and Mail, flaunt their wealth by having their vehicles re-sprayed with new and dramatic colours or entire complex patterns often – some even once a month – as a fashion statement: like changing one’s clothing.(https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/colourful-cars-of-china/article37419072/).

The mix of massive population, mass education, entrepreneurship and innovation – let alone the astute Communist leadership’s economic success, means that US and Western European domination in these vital areas will soon be eclipsed.

The world’s center of power and scientific innovation is shifting to the East.

And Mandarin may soon become as common as English; the new lingua franca of the world.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

YOUR HEALTH

WHO, BMI and more madness

The United Nations World health organization is again pushing the panic button.

In the last 40 years, the number of obese youth (ages 5 – 19) worldwide has risen from 11 million in 1975 to 124 million in 2015.

And WHO predicts that by 2022, more than 50% of all children world-wide will be obese.[i]

Of course, the criteria used is the BMI which, as I have criticized before, is a very poor tool to use for anyone outside the original sample population: primarily Caucasian males above age 18.

That the BMI scale does not take into account ethnicity and diverse gene pools and hereditary body shapes is now well established[ii]. It is also not meant to be used for those under age 18, i.e., growing children, who go though puberty and other radical body shifts re: height, muscle development and body fat.

The fact WHO states obesity is rampant in the far off and yet to be ‘developed’ island countries of Nauru (33.4% of girls and 14.7% of boys) and Cook islands (33.3% of boys) should be a cautionary warning that something is seriously amiss in their analysis and BMI toolⁱ!

These islands attract tourists galore with their pristine beaches, tropical flora and fauna and natives who preserve their culture and traditional cuisine! The nearest McDonalds to Cook Islands is 2851 km away![iii] And the same applies to KFC as numerous online tourists mention as complaints.

And as for Nauru, the nearest would be found in Auckland, New Zealand, over 4,000 km away and 22 hourts by airplane!.[iv]

As well, WHO seems to think that when more and more of the world’s population -- and young -- are no longer starving to death or on meager diets that induce minimal muscle and bone development, that such people are becoming ‘unhealthy’.

Being able to eat 2 or 3 times a day with a greater variety of foods seems to be, in the eyes of WHO, a bad thing.

So ignore their paranoid obesity data and projections based on an unreliable and poor-at-best gauge, the BMI.

New alternatives

Two new methods hoping to replace the BMI focus on the abdomen.

As noted by Dr. Philip Maffetone, the health risk for Type 2 diabetes and heart disease is increased with excessive abdominal fat which buildsup around the internal organs; and people who fall within ‘normal’ BMI scores can easily have excessive and dangerous internal fat levelsⁱⁱ.

the problem is not overall weight which the BMI tries to measure, but being ‘overfat’ or ‘metabolic obesity’ in the abdomen. According to his recently published study, 84.5% of adult Canadian males and 68.5% of Canadian females are overfatⁱⁱ.

His preferred, professional measuring method involves a special x-ray known as DMX, dual x-ray absorptionmetry.

For normal, quick assessment, Maffetone recommends measuring one’s circumference at the belly button and dividing by one’s height. This waist to height ratio should be under 0.5 if the person has a health fat level.

“Basically, our waist should be less than half our height,” he saysⁱⁱ.

A second, new measuring system has been created by the Mayo Clinic associated company, BVI America LLC.

This uses a special app and software to analyze a person’s body based on a full front and side photos (taken by a trained professional). The app calculates the ratio between overall body volume and abdominal volume. The ‘healthy range’ is 0 to 10.[v]

Reality check

I am 6’3” tall and am age 70, and regularly wear pants that I purchased 30 years ago!

I belong to a well known, fitness club and exercise 2 to 4 times a week using dumbbells and all the latest equipment.

While this makes me more muscular, my belly button circumference is the same as it has been for decades and can vary from 42” in the morning (after using the toilet) up to 45” by evening after having 3 square/full meals.

, I weigh anywhere from a morning 236 lbs (after using the toilet) during the heat of summer when I normally have only 2 meals a day, and up to 254 lbs by bedtime in winter after 3 full meals or a party banquet.

So my weight is not fixed: it varies from day to day depending on whether I eat 2 meals or 3 meals, and I have distinct summer and winter ranges based on overall activity and heat vs cold.

My scores:

· BMI - is just over 30 = OBESE range. According to the BMI, a person of my height should not weigh any more than 200 lbs to be ‘healthy” = score of 25[vi]

· Maffetone’s system – At 236 lbs I score 0.56 and after 3 full meals at 254 lbs I score 0.60. So I am ‘overfat’ and ‘unhealthy’ all the time.

· BVI method – who knows?

Conclusion - The BMI is not a useful or an accurate indicator of health and I suspect the same is true of Maffetone’s system as Dr. Maffetone claims over 2/3 of all Canadian adults are ‘overfat’ and unhealthy.

Canadians today live far longer than any generation in the past thanks mainly to the availability of abundant and varied foods.

The mania and panic over weight and body fat is lunacy!!!

Instead, I rely on 3 things:

1. Insurance company studies have long shown that people who are 10% heavier than any ‘ideal range’ actually live longer. That extra fat allows people to survive: not only during famines but during illness and surgeries that lead to weight lose.

That ‘extra cushion’ prevents the body from dropping below its ‘tipping point’ into anorexia, organ failure and death.

2. Having abdominal body fat is now being recognized as essential for surviving all kinds of injuries and blows to the midsection as this fat keeps the various internal organs from ‘bouncing around’ and ‘hitting each other’ – which would result in organ bruising and ruptures.

Put simply, having abdominal fat is essential for surviving everyday falls, punches to the body, sports tackles, body checks and car crashes, to name the most obvious situations.

FINALLY,

3 The best and easiest gauge of excess body fat is the old Phys. Ed. Class standard:

While in front of a mirror or a partner, pinch the bare flesh on either side of the belly button between your thumb and index finger and see how high/thick the roll is. If your roll is up to 1 inch high, you are fine.

If the roll is about ½ inch or so, you are very trim or skinny, and if you get close to zero, you are an all muscle Olympic grade athlete or anorexic.

__________________________________________________________________

BMI Metric system = Mass (Kilograms) / height (Meters)²

Imperial system = Mass (Pounds) x 703 ^{(conversion
factor to metric)} / height (Inches)²

Maffetone - Belly button circumference / height = number (under 0.5 is ‘healthy’)

BVI - Using photographs and computer technology, calculate abdomen volume / body volume = number (0 to 10 is ‘healthy’)

[i] “Obesity rates see tenfold increase in 40 years: WHO”, G&M, October 12, 2017, A10-11.

[ii] “ Does this make me look ‘Overfat’?”, G&M October 2, 2018, L1, L3.

[iii]https://www.facebook.com/pacificresortrarotonga/photos/a.116333458381026.20916.113596651988040/1261142770566750/?type=3 and

http://www.cookislands.org.uk/rarotonga%20cook%20islands%20capital.html#.Wh8lekqnG1s

^ivttps://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3775365&pagenumber=2 and https://www.google.ca/search?rlz=1C1CHBF_enCA690CA691&ei=VCgfWtPbLajejwSKl6m4Dg&q=distance+of+Auchland+to+Nauru&oq=distance+of+Auchland+to+Nauru&gs_l=psy-ab.3...7380.9922.0.10401.12.12.0.0.0.0.98.995.12.12.0....0...1c.1.64.psy-ab..0.2.190...0i13i30k1j0i13i5i30k1.0.2d9oau6pXrE

[v] “ Is BVI the new BMI?”, G&M October 2, 2018, L3.

[vi] Used BMI calculator at http://calculators.fattyweightloss.com/bmi/

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

YOUR HEALTH and MEDIA

The End of Contact Sports is Nigh

Don’t be surprised if within 5 years all contact sports radically change or else become banned.

This applies to individual sports such as boxing and UFC and any martial art that involves forceful blows to the head, and team sports such as football and hockey.

Repeat concussions and their serious, debilitating and life shortening effects are now well known and the topic most recently of Ken Dryden’s new book, Game Change: The Life and Death of Steve Montador and the Future of Hockey, which highlights the short 35 year life of dedicated hockey player Steve Montador[1].

Ongoing mental fuzziness and inability to focus one’s mind, attention and even one’s eyes, memory problems, depression and the snake pit of painkillers and other drugs are common.

I remember Eric Lindros, that giant as strong as a bull who dominated junior hockey and then the NHL, and was named one of the “100 Greatest NHL Players’.

His Wikipedia biography never mentions the C-word, concussion, but news of his repeated ’issues’ after blows to the head where well publicized at the time including interviews he gave the media upon his premature retirement in 2007 at age 34.

In the 1999-2000 season Eric Lindros, who often rushed with his head down, had 3 concussions and his Flyers career ended when in game 7 of the Eastern finals he received an open ice, legal, full blast shoulder to his head.

The great intimidator was never the same thereafter[2].

Recently, Lindros has been a major advocate for reform in all contact team sports re; concussions, and was instrumental in the push to make law in 2016 Rowan’s Law, named after a 17 year old high school female ruby player Rowan Stringer who died after suffering a second sports concussion in a single week in a rugby game[3]. Such overlapping trauma is now called Second Impact Syndrome and recognized as deadly[4].

Rugby players do not wear helmets and maybe that would have helped Rowan, but it is unlikely a helmet will achieve the holy grail of an injury proof head covering though all the equipment companies connected to the NHL and NFL as well as independents are trying.

More importantly, new research has uncovered another and more pervasive, unintended consequence of team contact sports: CTE (chronic traumatic encephalopathy) which is a degenerate brain disease connected to repeated, high force body to body contact – as in hockey body checking or football tackling!

Put simply, the mere repeated jarring of the brain during repeated body hits can itself be as deadly or lead to dementia.

The recently published study of the brains of 111 early death NFL players found that 100 had CTE degeneration, a 99.1% correlation[5].

So Ken Dryden’s new crusade to have hits to the head in hockey outlawed and declared a penalty, intentional or accidental,: helmet to helmet contact, shoulder to helmet contact or stick work to the head, is laudatory but insufficient.

Public awareness alone will not bring about the needed transformations to hitless, European style/Peewee hockey nor replace tackling with the strips of fabric of flag football, but (class action) lawsuits – again and again -- in the multi-billions of dollars, will force all contact sports to radically change or become extinct.

The lawyers now smell lots of blood!

Otherwise, baseball, basketball, soccer and volleyball will alone rule the team sports world.

[1] See article, “Enough!”, G&M, Saturday, October 14, 2017, F1 and F3.

[2] See Sports Illustrated article, https://www.si.com/nhl/2017/06/29/eric-lindros-concussions-flyers-where-are-they-now

[3] See above Sports Illustrated and http://nationalpost.com/features/rowans-law

[4] See https://completeconcussions.com/what-is-rowans-law/

[5] Time Magazine, Sept. 18, 2017, p, 26; “Former NFLers warn parents of CTE risk, G&M, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2017, S5;

Friday, July 21, 2017

YOUR HEALTH, the MEDIA and DO THE MATH

Dementia Scare

This week, a study published in the highly respected medical journal, The Lancet, has gained mass media attention. (See http://www.aljazeera.com/news/ 2017/07/lifestyle-cut-dementia-risk-lancet-170720072645780.html)

It states that by 2050 there may well be over 100,000,000 people world-wide suffering from dementia.

The article also advises that 1/3 of these cases could be prevented by following a ‘brain healthy’ lifestyle. Here are their numbers as to the significance and impact of 9 key and avoidable factors.
I have added well known, common ‘solutions’.

1. Staying in school until age 15 8% (Yes, schooling develops the brain.)
2. Middle age to older hearing loss 9% (So get hearing aids.)
3. Smoking 5% (Don’t start or stop ASAP)
4. Depression 4% (Yes, there are treatments and medication that work.)
5. Physical inactivity 3% (Walk more, run, jog or join a health club.)
6. Social isolation 2% (Family and friends are important.)
7. High blood pressure 2% (Again, medication helps.)
8. Obesity 1% (See #5 and watch your calorie or ‘junk food’ intake.)
9. Type 2 diabetes 1% (Again, medically manageable)

So, 1/3 of that 100 million figure is ‘preventable’ with better ‘lifestyle’ ‘choices’.

Unfortunately, some 67,000,000 dementia cases would, -- based on current medial knowledge -- be unavoidable.

That a lot of people – or is it?

Projected world population for 2050 is 9.8 billion. (See https://www.un.org/ development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html)

So do the MATH:

The 100 million is 100,000,000 /9,800,000,000 = 1.02%.
And if reduced by 1/3 by better ‘lifestyles’, the figure drops to 0.68%.

Yes, as people now live longer and world population grows, the absolute number of dementia cases will surely rise.

And, yes, it a devastating ‘slipping into the night’ as are Alzheimer’s, Parkinson MS, ALS, CANCER in all its diverse forms, and many others.

But these 2050 extrapolated and projected dementia numbers are not extraordinary; quite the contrary.

In 2014, it was estimated out of a U.S. population of just under 320,000,000, 1 in 738 or 368,320 people had dementia = 1.4%.
(See http://www.rightdiagnosis.com/d/dementia/stats.htm) At the same time, 14,738,719 people in the U.S.A. had cancer = 4.6 % (https://www.google.ca/search?q=US+Cancer+statistics&rlz=1C1CHBF_ enCA690CA690&oq=US+Cancer+statistics&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.5206j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

So while 100 million is a huge number and when projections 33 years into the future, seems ‘scary’ and almost apocalyptic, the number, taken in the context of projected world population and other deadly diseases, is not.

And I have too much faith in science and medical research to believe that no ‘cure’ or ‘preventative treatments’ will emerge in the 33 years remaining to 2050: to end dementia and Parkinson and Alzheimer’s, etc. world wide.

As a final note, the ongoing North American fixation on OBESITY (poorly defined and exaggerated by BMI standards] is a mere 1% factor.

Even smoking increases one’s risk by just 5%.

So your best bet, if nothing else, is to complete high school and avoid loud music concerts or get hearing aids when needed. These two alone reduce your risk by 17%.

Friday, December 2, 2016

GAIA

El Niño trumps Climate Change

The Globe and Mail, November 19, 2016, A8-A9 published a two page spread with close up photos of the devastation and death of 80% of the coral in the massive reef on Kiritimasti (Christmas Isand) -- located in the dead centre of the Pacific Ocean.

Studied for years by researchers from the University of Victoria and others, the current devastation is blamed by the scientists on – are you ready for this – the super El Niño of 2015-16 of which I have written previously.

The killing off and bleaching of most of this massive coral atoll has been blamed squarely on "heat stress", as water temperatures rose by 2.5*C, and excessive rainfall: all due to El Niño.

While the decline of the reef in also attributed in part to climate change, the researchers have been able to take samples and found El Niño’s rhythmic dips and surges are the primary cause of coral reef devastation, and subsequent gradual regrowth -- and it has affected the area for 7,000 years.

So El Niño is no new phenomenon though ignored until the 20^th century outside of the fisherman and villagers of South America’s upper west coast which is its centre and source.

Supposedly, El Niño is the result of weaker Easterly Trade Winds allowing the sun heated Equatorial zone to stay warmer. Its twin opposite, La Nina is considered the result of extra strong Easterly winds which pull up colder water from the ocean bottom making the Pacific waters near the surface 3 to 5*C cooler. (See for this explanation http://www.conserve-energy-future.com/what-is-la-nina.php.)

But some 30 years ago, when I first learned of El Nino (and La Nina), I told my high school students it is probably the result of deep, underwater volcanic activity, which, just like land based volcanoes. erupt periodically in surges of varying intensity and spew forth molten lava which transfers heat to the surrounding waters as it cools.

Hawaii, for instance, is one such volcanic ‘outgrowth’ as deep ocean lava emitted over centuries built up into solid stone thanks to heat transfer to the adjoining waters. And today, still active submersed volcanoes around Hawaii ‘grow’ by transferring heat to the surrounding waters to cool their lava build up.

This, I suggest, is the source of recurring and irregular surges of El Niño, which will be with us for many centuries to come.

As for La Nina, the cooling ocean occurs when those volcanoes are dormant and allow the waters to stay cool as well.

Dr. Robert Ballard, the great investigator of the ocean deep (and discovered of the Titanic) in his TV documentaries argues that the oceans of the world are poorly understood.

Their influence on human life above the waves is far greater than we imagine.

Saturday, November 19, 2016

TECHNOLOGY

Tesla design is not for me

I just visited a Tesla showroom to check out the Model S 4-door and Model X vehicles, and I would not buy either one -- even if I had the money and overlooked the fact a full charge takes up to 12 hours and the optimistic range of 300 miles is only under ideal conditions without AC or heater and at lower speeds.(See http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-model-s-range-and-charging-some-clarification-127409.html)

As for the Model S, I cannot fit into the driver's seat without contortions and feeling like I am in a straight jacket. At 6”2” and some 245 lbs, my body filled up most of the space between the steering wheel and seat even when they were set back to fullest opening. The seat itself was also too narrow for my hips and similarly the curved and narrow seat back.

And I was not alone, for a 6’3” thin as a rail young man had the same ‘squished’/impossible to drive experience – even when he reclined the back to almost 45 degrees!!

The Model S is simply too cramped for any taller or big driver.

And, of course, when the driver's seat is set back fully, there is only enough room in the back for the legs of small children.

As for the Model X, we compared notes again. We both were able to fit into the driver’s seat easily as its SUV height design compensated.

But the famous rear falcon wing doors were still a problem.

On-line videos show how these unique doors partially fold inward to reduce needed opening space to one foot or so when they start to rise and all kinds of sensors prevent the doors from touching sideways and overhead objects.

But according to the company’s website, the doors rise to 8’3” (= 99") when fully open, and as the videos show, the doors swing out more than a foot as they rise. So I suspect that if parked beside a mini-van or furniture truck or wall, the doors will be useless for entry or exit.

The internet already has discussions of this clearance height of 8’3" (= 99") as many, if not most, house garages do not have such clearance. My garage is just 92" high -- from floor to ceiling, and with the garage door retracted, it becomes just 6’5”.

So how would I or my family be able to get into or out of the rear section inside the garage? (See https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/what-height-clearance-needed-open-falcon-doors-garage.)

Finally, although Tesla claims the design is rollover proof, what happens if a car simply flips onto the roof in an accident?

How do the rear doors open then?

Mercedes started it all in 1952 with the racing Mercedes-Benz 300SL, but as Wikipedia notes, the company added explosives into the roof hinges so the doors could be removed if the vehicle landed upside down.

As well, water leakage into the interior from rain, puddles and snow are general design ‘challenges’ according to Wikipedia.

So, Mr. Musk, try the better solution used successfully for decades to allow minimal sideways space issues – the mini-van sliding door.

It may not be as dramatic but it works well.

And maybe you can even figure out a way to have front doors that slide.

Now that would be a coooool vehicle!!!