Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Real Climate Change: Part 1 El Nino and La Nina

Real Climate Change

 

Part 1:  El Nino and La Nina 

2023 is the hottest year on record dating back to the late 18th century Industrial revolution[i] and fueling the fear that human activity is the culprit. 


CO2 is the most abundant target as it is released into the air from humans burning 'fossil fuels': coal, petroleum, wood and natural gas, etc.

CH4, methane gas, is equally a concern.  It is far more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas (see next blog), and  its 'leakage' into the atmosphere during the extraction of natural gas from the deep earth and distribution pipes for heating homes and business structures.

Even more massive amounts of methane are released into the atmosphere also released by worldwide large scale animal husbandry as billions of cows, sheep, goats and pigs[ii] release methane (CH4) whenever  they fart and burp, and from the decomposition of their manure.

The third source of concern is Nitrous Oxide (N2O) is which lasts on average 114 years in the atmosphere[iii] and is deemed 300 times more potent than baseline CO2.[iv]

Consequently, there is great worry we may soon pass a tipping point and overheat the atmosphere with permanent results endangering all life on this planet due to human activity that generates these three gases.

But the fixation on these gases and their human emissions is at best a half-truth, and ignores the real major climate changers: El Nino and La Nina.


El Nino and La Nina

For just over 40 years,[v] meteorologists have been aware of these two seasonal alterations to the normal temperatures of the Pacific waters off Ecuador and Peru.

Technically called the Southern Oscillations, El Nino increases the warmth of these waters peaking in winter while a La Nina cycle cools them also peaking in winter.  The temperature change is by up to 3 degrees Celsius increase above Pacific normal temperatures during an El Nino and a decrease of up to 3 degrees Celsius for a La Nina.[vi]

These cyclical changes to normal Pacific water temperatures have a massive, worldwide effect as they alter the planets wind patterns and rainfall/snow.

Directly, they effect the west coast of South and North America, Australia and New Zealand, Japan, the Korean peninsula, China and South East Asia. (See diagrams below.)

And in a chain reaction manner, every other land mass on the planet.  (See diagrams below.)

Each has a similar pattern of weak to strong to weak effects and both El Nino and La Nina are strongest in January-March.[vii]

El Nino and La Nina alternate and appear on average every 2 to 7 years,[viii] with their effects lasting up to 9 to 12 months.[ix]

 

 

[x]

[

 

 

Notably, 2023-2024 is an extra strong El Nino cycle, and 2024 is projected to have a powerful La Nina beginning just a month or two after El Nino.[xi]

 

                  


 

 

Consequently, for once they are receiving extensive media coverage.

 

 

 

 

“The last strong El Niño occurred in 2015-16. Ocean temperatures began to surge above 1.5 C warmer than average in the summer of 2015 — eventually reaching as high as 2.6 C — but it was the following year that broke global temperature records. With El Niño expected to stretch into the winter, all eyes are on 2024.”[xii]

 

 “During El Nino, southern US states and the Gulf of Mexico, and Canada witnessed wetter weather. Parts of Australia, Asia, Central and Southern Africa experience drought.”[xiii]

 

For example, in February, 2024, the super strong El Nino redirected central Africa’s rainfall so NO RAIN fell in the crucial month of February across Zimbabwe, Zambia and Mali and parts of Botswana and Mozambique:  leading to massive crop failures and resulting in famine for some 18 million people![xiv]

 

As for La Nina:

 

[March, 2023]  This particular La Niña, which started in September 2020 but is considered three years old because it affected three different winters, was unusual and one of the longest on record. It took a brief break in 2021 but came roaring back with record intensity.

The few other times there's been a triple-dip La Niña, it's been after strong El Niño. But that's not what happened with this La Niña. [xv]

After three years, the La Niña weather phenomenon that increases Atlantic hurricane activity and worsens western drought is gone, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday.

 

 

“… a strong La Nina brings heavy rains in Canada and Asia, and dry weather in the southern US.[xvi]

And she caused excessive rains and flooding in Australia In October 2022.


A strong La Nina also creates more hurricanes that affect Florida and southern parts of the US while reducing tropical storms in the Pacific.[xvii]

The projection for 2024 is another strong La Nina following just a month or two after El Nino – and staying strong for at least 5 months from July 2024 through January 2025.[xviii]

 

Finally, according to the BBC, El Nino raises worldwide temperatures by 0.2 degrees Celsius and La Nina reduces world temperatures by 0.2 degrees Celsius.[xix]

 

These alterations to Global temperatures and related alterations to rainfall patterns (flooding and drought) have massive worldwide impacts.

 

The scope of El Nino’s and La Nina’s reach are illustrated in the maps below.

 

 

EL NINO Phenomenon


 

 


  [xx]

 


 

 

 


 

 

 

LA NINA Phenomenon



 [xxi]



[xxii]

 

 

Neither El Nino nor La Nina are is man-made but ‘natural’. 

 

While their causal origins are still unknown, their presence in the Pacific’s well-known eastern corridor of volcanos (both on the coast and under water) from the Antarctic up South and Central America and USA and Canada to Alaska, is a strong indication of volcanic activity-inactivity cycles.[xxiii]

 

Over 19,300 underwater volcanoes or seamounts have recently been identified in Pacific waters increasing the identified total to 43,454: including many extinct and many active ones. [xxiv]

 

The underwater eruption of such a volcano by the island of Tonga, near New Zealand, on January 15, 2022 was spectacular and recorded on film available at Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere - NASA.

 

It threw so much water and water vapour into the atmosphere: equal to 10% of the world’s normal water vapour, that it alone is expected to0 affected worldwide rainfall, snowfall and temperatures  for years to come.[xxv]

And off Hawaii another underwater volcano at Lö'ihi is spewing forth lava that will in the future create another island to rise above the sea[xxvi].  After all, all the Hawaiian islands are such volcanic creations[xxvii].


EL Nino and wildfires

2023 has been a notably bad year for wildfires. They have raged and left barren large swaths of Europe, Canada, Asia and elsewhere. [xxviii]  While western USA has been spared for once.[xxix]

While these wildfires have received extensive media coverage with dramatic footage, almost no one seems to have figured out the obvious: these vast lightning strike wildfires take place because their environments have been made unusually dry for months: from lack of rain and snow.  And it is this year’s strong El Nino which is the cause.

It has prevented normal snowfalls from accumulating on the Rockies mountains and their tree lined slopes and valleys and other mountainous parts of the world, and also shifted away normal rainfall from these forests: thereby leaving them bone dry and giant matches waiting for a spark.

El Nino’s causation of wildfires has been studied and found to be a closed loop.

El Nino triggered wildfires emit massive heat into the atmosphere and massive amounts of CO2.  And these atmosphere additions in turn affect the Pacific Ocean’s ‘climate’ and reduce the force of the next El Nino by an estimated 22%.[xxx]

As for the  USA, 2023 has been an unusually ‘quiet’ wildfire season, and this too is a direct result of the strong El Nino.

California has been bathed in desperately needed rainfall[xxxi]  and the Northwest has had massive flooding.[xxxii]



CONCLUSION

The fixation and blinked mindset of the scientific community, governments and the general public on human activity and three tiny gases -- and belief that global warming is linear and man-made, is to ignore the overwhelming power and rhythms of the planet, Gaia, and to exaggerate our influence as the human ant.

Massive 2023 wildfires across the planet gained extensive media attention and, yes,  they bumped up the planet’s temperature and CO2 atmospheric numbers. [xxxiii]

But it was the super strong El Nino and the unusually dry warm weather it caused that was the ‘match’ to these natural forest fires.

This is on top of its own natural raising of global temperatures.

In brief, the super strong El Nino of 2023-24 is the key factor in the unusually warm global 2023 temperatures.

El Nino and La Nina are massive global weather changers on ‘natural’ cycles that have for too long been ignored by Climate Change activists and their lemming followers.



[vi] ttps://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/el-nino-returns-this-year-world-expect-climate-change/?DAG=3&gad_source=1 

[xiv] Globe and Mail, Friday, June 4, 2024, A11, “A severe drought is plunging millions of Africans into crisis”.

[xvii] la nina: El Nino, La Nina effect: Check what happens, impact on weather pattern - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com) 

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