) 

GAIA

California – learn from the Promised Land

California and much of the U.S. southwest has had an extended period of drought this year again.  The cyclical pattern that peaks almost every 10 years since the start of the mid-20^th century (see Wikipedia, “Drought in the USA”)  is now recognized as caused by the periodic recurrence of a strong El Nino (and related La Nina) current off the Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru.  This ‘local’ water change impacts all of North and South America to the east and all of the Pacific Rim countries to the west. (See http://biophysics.sbg.ac.at/atmo/elnino.htm, Environmental Physics / Lettner
VO 437-503  “the El-Niño (ENSO) Phenomenon” by Pierre Madl, Dec.1^st, 2000)

Combined with the population shift in the US from the Northeast to the deep south – think Florida – and the desert southwest of Arizona and Nevada and, of course, California – which is home to 38 million people or 1 in every 8 Americans, drops in precipitation and available water is a serious issue but more or less IGNORED for decades!

The Colorado river system and its 40 dams alone supplies water to farms and 25 million people across the southwest. Yet each year it is estimated that reservoirs above the dams loose up to 20% of the water to evaporation. (See http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/water/download/riversreport.pdf  “Colorada River”) 

California, is now 68% in extreme drought as water from the melting icecaps and rivers of the Sierra Nevada Mountains is at an all time low – following 2 preceding years of below normal precipitation.

The economy of California – the world’s 8^th largest – is in disarray as water shortages are affecting crop harvests, livestock production and fruit and vegetable farming.  Tourism is also harmed as resorts with lakes now have cracked and hardened beaches and lakes that look more like wading pools. (Globe and Mail, Feb. 11, 2014, “Not a drop to drink”.)

As the politicians and ‘water experts’ seem to have few new ideas as to how to preserve what water there is, maybe they should look to the Middle East and the Promised Land for strategies.

1. Never, ever allow collected water or wells to be open to the air and be heated by the sun. 

Remember the Bible story of Jacob (Genesis 29:2–10) coming to a town’s well and having to roll off a huge stone that was used as ‘insulation’ against heat and evaporation. 

Also, excavations at King Herod’s palace at Masada have uncovered huge underground man-made cisterns with tiny exterior openings connected to  a viaduct network to collect rain runoff and redirect it to these huge, enclosed storage tanks.

So, those reservoirs around Los Angeles – whose empty shells were highlighted in the 1900s era movie Chinatown – need to be covered or relocated underground.   You cannot afford up to 20% evaporation during droughts or any other time when water is vital to life!

2. carefully measure the water you use for agriculture as Israel does today with it’s world leading drip line systems -- rather than open air sprinklers popular in the USA.

3. filter toilet flushes and sewage and reuse ‘grey water’ for agriculture

4. and finally, build Desalination plants.   California can turn the Pacific Ocean into a source of fresh water using technology that has been around for decades – but which has been largely ignored in the US Pacific, Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts.

With a few desalination plants, Israel today meets the water needs of some 3.5 million people and ½ the country’s agriculture and industry.

Yes, California at 38 million people would need many more desalination plants as would other states in the south and southwest that regularly have droughts.

And yes, desalination is expensive, but that is a better, and in the long run cheaper solution  than regular massive disruptions to the economy, and life threatening dehydration and thirst.!

According to   Wikipedia “Desalination”, it would cost just US$0.29 per person per day (for an average person’s 100 gallon per day total usage).  Not bad compared to the price of bottled water!

If the Promised Land needs desalination plants and other techniques to protect water evaporation, then it is time the US and its drought- prone south and southwest also recognize that you cannot live in desert or hot areas and be water spendthrifts.

So, shielding stored water, recycling, and desalination are the way of the future.

Remember:  Gaia does not suffer fools well.

   

YOUR MONEY

 

bitcoin - the second shoe drops

This last week has not been good for bitcoin.
 

 The government of Russia has followed China's lead and barred bitcoin.

And 2 bitcoin exchanges- MtGox in Tokyo and Bitstamp in Slovenia - had to shut down for a day after being ripped off as some clients were given double payments or were subject to other “hacker attack”.

Whether the former fraud was made possible by a weakness in bitcoin’s encryption or an error by the exchange’s own computer systems,  bitcoin's value and price dropped 20% almost instantly to                US $535. (Globe and Mail, Feb. 12, 2014, B2 “Bitcoin reels as opponents deal body blow”) 
 

Such flaws in currency security are never good and the roller coaster --  mostly down and down - - volatility in bitcoin pricing  over the last few months would never be tolerated by any central bank or country -- unless it was on the verge of total collapse!
 

And unlike real currencies, bitcoin cannot go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the World Bank to prop it up.

It is fool's gold!

 

GAIA and TECHNOLOGY

Fracking is cool

The old guard who believe we will be soon running out of ‘affordable’ oil and natural gas continue their rants and dismiss the fracking revolution.

Gary Mason of the Globe and Mail is one such pessimist and his recent article “What y-happens when fossil fuels run out?’ (January 21, 2014, A11) relies on Chris Martenson who gave up on modern society and the corporate ladder and now grows his own food in the country.

Mr. Martenson’s arguments –n which Gary Mason repeats unchallenged, is that it takes much more ‘energy’ today to pump out oil than in the past and claims the Alberta tra sands have a 1 to 3 or 1 to 5 energy ratio – unlike the 1 to 99 output of the distant past and 1 to 25 output in the 1970s.

Oil exploration and production, according to Martenson, is becoming more and more expensive overall.

Moreover, we will run out of oil in the next 50 to 60 years!!

                                                            + + + + +

That last comment is oh so familiar and the rallying cry of ‘peak oil’ doomsayers for over 40 years!    But we keep on finding more and more as time progresses, and new ways – as with the tar sands and fracking – to squeeze out oil and natural gas.

And if the economics or ratios of oil exploration and technology are so ‘costly’ today, why are oil prices dropping across North America so that West Texas Crude is selling – in the worst winter in over 20 years – at under US $98  a barrel? And if not for the political and environmentalist delays, the XL pipeline would already be completed and pumping millions more barrels of Alberta and northern US oil to the US refineries along the Gulf Coast – and dropping the spot market rate to around $80 a barrel.

 

Shale Fracking in particular seems to be overlooked by Martenson and Mason.

They ignore a variety of scientific and market facts:

1. Success rate in drilling

Conventional oil and gas drilling has always been a ‘crap shoot’ as one had to guess --based on close to the surface ‘indicators’ -- which location might —when drilled straight down – pop an oil or natural gas reservoir.  This challenge and guesswork applies to both land and ocean fields and unsuccessful ‘exploration’ is a major cost and headache.

 On land, the industry assumes for every 5 test wells drilled, only one will bear fruit, and often with such small pools as to be uneconomical.  On average, the result is 1 in 20.

Fracking into shale and using horizontal drilling is almost 100% guaranteed success.

2. Fracking produces, unlike most conventional oil and gas drilling, huge amounts of the sought after product immediately.  According The Atlantic, conventional wells start slowly and feed slowly, at 50 barrels a day, but fracking can release 7000 barrels from day one though depleting the reservoir much faster. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/08/shut-up-and-drill-why-fracking-could-end-the-age-of-gas-price-spikes/278494/. And thanks to fracking, US oil production has increased by 2.3 million barrels a day since 2011 and possibly another 1 million additional barrels a day in 2014 according to Citigroup. (Globe and Mail, “Oil price volatility in retreat” Jan 22, 2014, B13)

3. Also, as noted in the above Globe and Mail article,  fracking wells are up and running in about a month’s time unlike the year or more for conventional land wells and far, far longer for deep ocean rig drilling.  This economy of time and costs is a huge benefit to company profits and allows for sale at lower prices.

4. Shale oil is ‘sweet’ light crude – similar to the benchmark West Texas or European Brent --  and requires minimal refining allowing for old mothballed or newer, simpler refineries to get up and running – at a huge cost savings. (Again, The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/08/shut-up-and-drill-why-fracking-could-end-the-age-of-gas-price-spikes/278494/)

 

5.  As shale fracking is from start to final processing far cheaper than conventional drilling, and much more rapid to the marketplace, costs for gas and oil are dropping across the USA.  Oil is below $100 a barrel at present and ongoing (old) predictions of $200 a barrel are just crying wolf. As more fracking fields open up all over the USA and in numerous countries around the world, supply gluts will lead to lower oil prices.  As for natural gas, that magic moment has already passed as gas that sold for $14 in 2008 is now going for 14 .     

Finally, dirty coal has a head to head challenger for price, and most coal burning plants can be readily converted to gas, which produces under ½ the carbon footprint.  New gas plants can also be built within 3 years: far faster than hydro-electric (with its new dams and long power lines) and multi-decade nuclear power.  

So, ignore the naysayers who have bet their money on the old thinking and old fears.

Gaia is bountiful, and gas and oil will continue to economically fuel human endeavors for generations to come.

YOUR HEALTH

 

Don't be an ostrich

 

Today more and more educated and young people in North America are avoiding regular booster shot inoculations and especially the annual flu vaccination.

 

So far this year in Canada, just over 1/3 of the population is bothering to get FREE vaccination again influenza even though now it is readily available at their doctors, public mass clinics and local drug stores.

 

The mindset is particularly misguided because influenza is always a nasty attacker and since 2009 the predominant or an always recurring strain is H1N1 – swine flu.

 

Many seem to think the flu (at a 14 day run) is only a longer version of the common cold      (7 days), but this is not true, especially with H1N1 lurking around.

 

The common cold attacks the head and its common passageways: the upper throat, nose, sinuses, and ears.   That is why you feel a scratchy/sore throat, ‘congested head’, plugged ears, and have a running/snotty nose.

 

 

 

By comparison, all of the 303 know varieties of influenza (which comes in type A or type B families)¹ launch a broader and more vicious attack:  leading to muscle aches, headaches, chills, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and most characteristically, a high fever ( a fever which alone if not reduced by cold compresses, cold baths and ibuprofen or acetaminophen medication can literally burn out your brain circuitry and cause death). And, of course, the flu attacks the breathing system and the lungs causing phlegm, wet coughing and may progress to severe shortness of breath and pneumonia --  the latter two requiring emergency medical attention and hospital critical-care treatment for a week or more – if the patient survives.

 

Put simply, all flu strains are not nice and create a serious weakening of the immune system during its 2 week long attack and many who survive this struggle end up with permanent lung scarring and other immune system predatory conditions for two years or more².

 

And H1N1 – the common and often predominant strain in Canada since 2009 – is especially dangerous as it an equal opportunity attacker and killer.

 

Most flu viruses tend to attack and harm the weak (the old, the very young and those in between who are pregnant or have some serious health conditions related to a major organ: heart, lungs, kidneys, etc.)  So, in the past, half of all deaths from the regular flu epidemics were age 62 or older – when life expectancy was 71.

 

But HiN1 has a mid-point of age 40!!!   That is, it will attack all ages and seriously threatens the lives – or kills off— a 25 year old joggers ³, a construction worker age 45 or a teenager!!

 

And while H1N1 has not been around for many decades, its new, annual visit is of great concern, for we now know – through DNA tracking – that the much earlier, ancestral version was the Spanish Flu – which between 1918 and 1920 killed some 50 million people worldwide ^4.

 

Final note:  It takes 2 weeks for the flu vaccine to reach maximum protection, so even if we are in mid- flu season today in Ontario and Canada (November through April), still get your needle.  You may travel to other parts of the planet in June which is their flu season, or international visitors may bring it with them to your home.

 

Treatment basics: All flues, when in full force, require isolation, bed rest -- to allow all the body’s energies to focus on defeating the virus, plenty of replacement fluids and the above mentioned treatments for high (deadly) fever. Over the counter medicines can help but bed rest and isolation are key!!!

 

 

So, be pro-active and practice preventative medicine.  Get your flu shot now and in future at the start of the season.   Protect your health and the health of your family and friends, make your boss happy and avoid loss of income – and keep H1N1 and other influenza at bay.

 

Don’t be an ostrich and bury your head in the ground when danger appears.

 

  

_______

1. Public Health Agency of Canada FluWatch report: January 5 to January 11, 2014 (Week 02)

2. “1.5 million called in sick with flu” by Jeff Gray, Globe and Mail Website Update;   Published Friday, Jan. 15 2010, 9:17 AM EST;Last updated Thursday, Aug. 23 2012, 1:45 PM EDT

3. “The scars from H1N1 remain” by Deborah Folka, Globe and Mail Website Update; Published Monday, Oct. 04 2010, 12:00 AM EDT; Last updated Thursday, Aug. 23 2012, 4:19 PM EDT

4. See Wikipedia, “Spanish Flu” and “Influenza”