Wednesday, November 21, 2018


Wildfires and the 3 little pigs

Wildfires for the last 3 years have been headline news across Canada and the U.S. -- in Summer and even Fall.

Fort McMurry in Alberta (2016)[i] and now Paradise in California have been engulfed by flames and destroyed, with thousands forced to flee for their lives and only to return to find mass destruction and loss.

California's current two major wildfires -- in the north and south -- have claimed over 77 lives with over 700 plus missing and unaccounted for.

Lack of seasonal rain and resultant droughts have made forests into easily started matches - whether from lightening or human error.

And, of course, ‘experts’ and the media link these fires and losses to Global Warming and Climate Change – all caused by us humans.

But as I have argued many times in the past, human activity in the period since the Industrial Revolution is a very small factor in climate change.

1.    Volcanoes and earthquakes produce far more carbon and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere 'naturally'.

2.    So do massive wildfires in heavily wooded or grassland areas of British Columbia, Ontario, California and elsewhere.– whether started by ‘natural’ lightning, spontaneous combust or human error.

As well, and more importantly, the changes in rainfall patterns are simply explained by the global impact of the ‘natural’ El Nino and La Nina effects off the coast of Peru.  When they flare up for years on end, they alter wind and air moisture across the world: east, south, north and west.

In North America the effects go to mid-continent, and their westward reach is across Japan and China and India and all of Europe to Britain.

So do not fall victim to the mantra that it is human activity is the key cause of Global Warming and Climate Change.

The media frenzy -- that wildfires are becoming more frequent and much larger of late – due to Global Warming -- is also incorrect.

Despite readily available media pictures and video footage, we actually have fewer and smaller ‘massive’ wildfires today than in previous centuries[ii] as we have far better technology to stop their spread:  aerial water and chemical drops from specialized airplanes, and satellite and other methods to see where fires are rising and spreading.


Obvious Solutions

Most importantly, as pointed by Glenn McGillivray in his article, “We have to treat wildfires like actual fires” (G&M, Nov. 14, 2018, A9), it is not hard for towns and cities to avoid suffering massive destruction and loss of life if 4 simple rules are implemented:

   1.     Build only at a safe distance from wooded and dense grassland areas.  Most buildings damaged and destroyed by wildfires are not caught in rolling, ground level fireballs but start from burning cinders that are blown by the wind downstream. So a ‘safe’ distance is a substantial distance.

   2.   Plant and ensure trees closest to human habitation areas and communities are ‘slow burn’ or ‘fire resistant’ varieties.  These act as a barrier and allow firefighters extra time to arrive and defend homes and communities.
           
         The government of Alberta recommends the following species:

“Trembling aspen, balsam poplar and white birch are commonly found throughout Alberta. Since the characteristics of these trees do not readily support fast-moving wildfires, they make ideal species to plant in and around FireSmart communities[iii]”. 

In British Columbia, giant cedars and Douglas fir also resist fire spreading.


3.  ‘Block cutting’ – i.e., rectangular clear cutting - is now recommended by the government of Alberta so dense sections of trees can be separated by safety gaps to minimize wildfire spread[iv].


     4. Build with fire resistant exterior materials such as BRICK and   CONCRETE     – or other, fire resistant materials and new technologies.
 

Other recommendations:

As noted in SHARP magazine (Winter 20019, pages 88 -91),  ”How the West was Burned”:

         1. Plant within forests Douglas fir, mountain ash, cedar and spruce.

They are fire resistant varieties unlike the predominant, lodgepole pine favoured by forestry companies and – unfortunately – the Mountain Pine Beetle that has already burrowed into and killed over 30 million hectares of western Canadian and U.S. forests.

    2.  ‘Cull’ such dead standing lodgepole forests. Where possible, use their wood as best as possible[v] or they are matches waiting to blaze at up to 800* C.

3.  Have governments and park authorities return to the old practice of larger ‘prescribed burns’:  to create ‘buffer zones’ within and on the edges of forests.
                                                                


Conclusion

The mindset that forests must be preserved in their ‘natural state’ – the naive ‘tree hugger’ mindset – has proven counter-productive and destructive: to the forest themselves, human property and lives.

The government of Alberta in the above quote talks of FireSmart communities who anticipate the worst and are pro-active. 

This mindset must become the norm in all human habitations and communities near potential fire Armageddons.

Governments must insist on this!




Japan’s example

Japan learned its lesson re: earthquakes in 1923 when almost every dwelling and building in Tokyo fell to the ground and 143,000 people lost their lives. 

Today, skyscrapers dot Tokyo with high tech floating base pads and shock absorbers built into each such tower.

Since 1981 every building in Japan must be able to withstand an earthquake of Level 6 on the 7 level Japanese Shindo scale.[vi]

We need to similarly smarten up re: wildfires.


Remember the tale of the Big Bad Wolf and Three Little Pigs. 

Build for survival.  No straw or stick dwellings.  Wildfires do not 'huff and puff'  like hurricanes and cyclones and tornados do, but their predictable effects on human dwellings and human life can be thwarted..

                             


[i] 88,000 people were forced to evacuate,. 2,400 homes and building destroyed at a totawl cost of $9.9 billion. (Wikipedia, “2016 Fort McMurry wildfire”).
[iv] Ibid.
[v] See latter half of entry at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_pine_beetle
[vi] From  https://www.ft.com/content/3efc4da8-c3bd-11e2-aa5b-00144feab7de

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

TECHNOLOGY - Should Canada make Snoopy the head of its Air Force?

The cartoon character Snoopy was a World War 1 ace pilot who overcame the great German Red Baron. Snoopy flew a Sopwith Camel fighter bi-plane while the baron had a Fokker Dr1 Dreidecker, triplane. 

Their great aerial confrontations were immortalized in comics, TV specials and the hit song “Snoopy vs the Red Baron”.

So maybe the Government of Canada and Ministry of Defense should somehow contact Snoopy to lead our air force into the future.

This may sound ludicrous and a joke, but so too is the ongoing incompetence of the current government regarding the needs and obligations of our air force and soldiers-in-the air.

The very title of the report released today says it all: “Canada’s jets don’t meet international obligations: Auditor-General”  (G&M online, Nov, 20, 2018).

 

According to the report, our ancient fleet of F18 Hornets (first flight =1978)  has the following operational problems:

 

1.      Shortage of pilots

2.      Shortage of technicians

3.      Shortage of airplanes to meet our current NORAD and NATO obligations.

 

4.      And, finally, our fleet of F18 have ”NOT HAD ANY MAJOR UPGRADES TO COMBAT CAPABILITIES SINCE 2008”…. “LAGGING FAR BEHIND FOREIGN FLEETS” …and “WILL BE   DISADVANTAGED AGAINST POTENTIAL ADVERSARIES …”.


According to the Auditor General, these antiques were originally scheduled to be decommissioned (and put out to pasture as scrap) no later than 2020, but will now be expected to fly and carry out missions until 2032!!!!


This is insanity and gross incompetence!!!

*****  Oh, sorry. Snoopy cannot help as he is American. 
         Maybe we can get the ghost of Canadian Billy Bishop instead.     

Monday, November 19, 2018

TECHNOLOGY --- F35 and Trudeau dithering


How ironic.

Canadians last week on November 11 join together in mourning and grief to  commemorate the 100th Remembrance Day.
In every town and city there were mass processions to local war memorials, speeches, wreaths and the playing of the Last Post.
In Ottawa, the ceremony included a 21 gun salute, the wailing of bagpipes and an overhead  pass over by five  F18 fighter jets.
Numerous national and  government officials were prominently in attendance and all gave thanks to those who gave up their lives or came back "maimed in body,mind and soul" --  after fighting in the name of  Canada for our values of liberty, democracy, and peace:  in WW1, WW2, the Korean War and more recent missions  including Afghanistan.
Yet, at the same time --  and for three long years now -- our current Liberal government continues to dither and delay and simply try to find excuses NOT to supply our air force with the best equipment needed for the survival of our pilots and aircrews, and the success of their missions: in a world of high tech ground to air missiles and new air to air weapons.
Only the F35 Lightning fighter -- with its unique stealth design which makes it invisible to ground and airplane radar -- can meet the dual goals of crew survival and mission success.
The previous Harper Conservative government understood this and signed on to make the F35 the replacement for our 40 year old and militarily dated F18s (first flight =1978). Canada thereby joined the US, U.K., Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Turkey and Israel.

But since taking power in 2015, the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau has backtracked on this commitment seeking cheaper alternatives.
It has therefore opened the 'competition' again to three European jet makers and America’s Boeing.
To make these jets eligible, the Liberals have played around with the criteria and mission specifications for our next generation fighters, but these maneuvers have faltered on the required communication system.
 As a member of NORAD, Canadian jet fighters and ground command must be able to coordinate activities with US forces and so must speak the same highly encrypted and secure 'language'.
Canada is also part of the 5 Eyes co-ordination group of US., Britain, Australia and New Zealand who share military intelligence.
As a consequence of these two related requirements, the Dassault of France has withdrawn its Rafale jet from the competition.

In fact, no European manufacturer can meet these key requirements: including the Swedish Gripen and the last European entry, the Typhoon.
  
So the ‘competition is solely the F 35 Lightning II and American Boeing’s SuperHornet.

As the communication requirements should have been obvious to our government and military from the start, this ‘open competition’ is clearly a sham.


More importantly, saving money on a cheaper alternative that is ‘almost comparable’ to the F 35 has long been Liberal mantra when in opposition.

The data summary below (based on Wikipedia entries) tells it all:   


First flight
Current price
US millions
Number produced to date
Stealth design
F 35 Lightning II
2006
89.2 - 100
320+
YES
F 18 SuperHornet
    1995
70.5
600
NO
Gripen
    1988
 30 - 60
247
NO
Rafale
    1991
80 - 90
121   (total as of 2012)
NO
Typhoon
   1994
101 - 120
623
NO

Fact 1:  No other jet fighter in the world has comparable stealth technology to the F35 Lightning II.
Fact 2: Every alternative to the F35 is at least a decade to 2 decades older design technology than the F35.
Fact 3:  Surprisingly, only the Gripen is substantially cheaper. The old Typhoon and Rafale are still comparably priced to the F35 with the SuperHornet just somewhat cheaper.  

Finally, the U.S. will be replacing its entire fleet – including SuperHornets -- with some 3,000 F35 Lightnings!
So will Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government --  to save money by buying 'antiques'  -- be willing to sacrifice the lives of Canadian airmen -- and the success of future missions --  against any enemy ready to fight us with state-of-the- art weapons and not just sticks and stones?

I foresee the day when Justin Trudeau or a successor will proclaim a formal apology – probably on a November 11 -- for allowing our soldiers-in-the-air to be slaughtered in combat --  and missions failed -- because our current government was too cheap to do the right thing.

_________________
See G&M Nov 7, 2018 pageA6. "European fighter jet maker pulls out of competition to replace CF -18s"