TECHNOLOGY and YOUR MONEY

 FOUR (4) INCONVENIENT TRUTHS RE: ELECTRIC CARS

Canadian and American media, and the public, continue to be mesmerized by Elon Musk’s all electric vehicle company, Tesla, and its products.

 It is the Apple of the car world: with a dramatic Steve Job’s like founder, has gained iconic status, and its loyal followers do not flinch at paying luxury prices: the 2019 Canadian base models start at  $100,000 for Model S,  $115,000 for Model X, and $45,600 for Model 3. 

This is before provincial and federal taxes and other fees.  

NOTE: Model S’s top of the line 100 kWh battery model has a listed range maximum of 539 km.[i]  Base Model S60 is max. 335 km.[ii]  The 600 lb heavier Model X with 100 kWh batteries has a maximum range of 475 km.

And as far as most North Americans are aware, the only competition is GM’s subcompact Bolt (383 km), Japan’s Nissan subcompact Leaf (max range 242 km) , and the about to arrive  Jaguar I-Pace SUV (max range 386 km), the 2019 Canadian Utility Car of the Year (AJAC) winner. The I-Pace will start at over $90,000 Canadian.

Lesser known vehicles now available in Canada are Ford Focus EV (range max. 185 km), SmartForTwo (max range 155km), BMW i3 (max range 200 km), Hyundai IONIQ (max range 200 km), Kia Soul EV (max range 179 k), and Volkswagen e-Golf (max range 200 km)[iii].

So only 12 models in all!  

 But in Europe (and Asia) there are far, far more choices as numerous manufacturers are producing all electric vehicles. Aside from Tesla models, Jaguar I-Pace, Nissan Leaf and GM Bolt, currently Europeans can also buy from luxury to moderate prices: BMW i3, BMW 330e, BMW 225xe, Porsche Panamara PHEV, Volkswagen e-Golf, Volkswagen Golf GTE, Volkswagen Passat GTE,  Mercedes Benz 350 e, Audi A3 e-tron, Volvo XC90 T8, Renault Kangoo ZE, Hyundai Ioniq EV, Kia Soul EV, Kia Niro PHEV, Fiat 500e, Honda Clarity EV, SmartForTwo Electric Drive, Ford Focus electric, Renault Zoe, Mitsubushi Outlander P-HEV, and Mini Countryman PHEV.[iv]

Even lowball priced Skoda is expected to have 5 models on the road by 2020.[v]

What does this list show?

1.    All European car makers have jumped into electric vehicles as gasoline is far, far more expensive there than in North America. And to stay alive, and as penance for their ‘dirty diesel secret’ and chicanery -- which has become front page and courtroom news, German car manufacturers are leading the way. The very economical (but polluting) diesel car market is dead.  To clean up its image and sell cars, German car makers are pro-electric.

2.    Asia car makers are also into all electric cars – except for Toyota, the world leader. (See more below.)

Inconvenient Truth #1

We in North America have very limited all electric and even hybrid choices because our own manufacturers: GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, and all European and Asian manufacturers do not see a viable market here in North America.  

On April 16, 2018, a U.S. gallon of gas cost $7.82 in Norway,  $6.97 in France, $6.57 in Britain,  $6.43 in Germany.[vi]  

But in the U.S.A. it was on average $2.87[vii]: or 2 1/4 time less than the cheapest rate in Europe!

Only if governments (and tax payers) agree to jump through hoops with various generous rebates, elimination of sales taxes, license fees, free parking exemptions, etc. – and ban all new  gas powered car sales by 2025 – all of which apply to Europe’s leader in e-cars, Norway[viii], will there be any real market for all electric cars in North America.   Based on price alone.

Inconvenient Truth #2

Electric cars have such massive ‘range anxiety’ issues that they are not practical for countries such as Canada and U.S.A. were people often travel huge distances in open country for vacations, family reunions, events, trips o an airport and even to go to work.

Batteries – the heart of an electric car – cannot over-rule the laws of physics:

           

       A. Recharging takes a loonnnggg time even with lithium batteries.  

           A 240 volt ‘super charger’ requires a minimum 30 minutes for a partial               boost; not the 5 minutes a gasoline full tank fill up takes.

Otherwise, the vehicle must be plugged in all day at work or overnight at home.

 B.   The ‘all day’ plug in option is very costly and not always viable:  

 Image the infrastructure and cost if every workplace had to have electric  feed lines and sockets for every employee, manager and boss’s vehicle.

What of large, wide open parking lots and shopping malls?

And mass overnight recharging is also not viable as it would almost instantly FRY THE GRID  if every car in the U.S. were electric. There are 272,000,000 on the road as of 2018[ix].

In Canada, as of 2017, there were just over  24,600,000 registered vehicles (including commercial)[x]-- which is just under one vehicle for every adult (male and female) over age 19  (total ADULTS = 28,500,000[xi]).

Inconvenient Truth #3

Winter hates batteries!   As anyone who has driven in Canada or northern U.S. knows, even 12 volt car batteries that only need to work for seconds often fail in winter and a boost or tow truck is needed.

Put simply, cold weakens the chemical reactions in all batteries and so too with even lithium batteried cars.

A recent test drive by G&M’s driving expert, Mark Richardson, (February 22, D8) highlights the problem. 

The new 2019 GM Bolt comes with a lithium 60 kWh battery system using 288 cells[xii].

Day one of Richardson’s test drive was in just -10* C (which is MILD for Canadian winters) yet the car lost over 40% of its range. Due to the cold and running the heater, and with only one person on board (= minimal weight), it only got 203 km instead of the official range max. of 383 km.

When GM was contacted, the representative said the normal winter battery power loss should only be 20-25%!

On another day, Richardson tried a super fast 480 volts recharger which claims will give 145 km of distance on a 30 minute charge.

But in the real world, at -18*C, this super-super fast charger took TWO HOURS for a recharge guaranteed for “50 km to 150 km”.

In comparison, a gas engined, comparable size subcompact, such as Toyota’s Yaris,  would have taken only 5 minutes to get a range of 400 miles[xiii] or 650 km!

Inconvenient Truth #4

Electric cars are NOT the future.

The world’s largest vehicle manufacturer, Toyota, has refused to enter the all- electric market. Its ground breaking Prius is still popular but the company sees hydrogen fuel cells as the real next big market – not electric cars (as explained in an earlier blog).

Hydrogen fuel cells take the same fill up time as gasoline and have equally huge distance ranges. Hydrogen is the most abundant gas in the universe, and its tailpipe exhaust is only water vapour.

Jeremy Clarkson, the highly respected British auto expert and star of Top Gear and now The Grand Tour TV shows, recently stated in a G&M interview (February 22, D2) that hydrogen is the future, and that electric cars will never become dominant due to the limitations of electrical grids for overnight recharging.

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[i][i] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S

[ii] Ibid.

[iii] https://www.auto123.com/en/news/top-10-electric-cars-canada-2018/64574/?page=1

[iv] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Europe

[v] https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/skoda-confirms-five-electrified-models-next-two-years

[vi] https://www.statista.com/statistics/221368/gas-prices-around-the-world/

[vii] https://ycharts.com/indicators/gas_price  Based on interactive  line graph chart.

[viii] https://insideevs.com/electric-cars-norway-new-car-sales-2018/

[ix] https://www.statista.com/statistics/859950/vehicles-in-operation-by-quarter-united-states/

[x] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2310006701

[xi] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000501

[xii]https://www.google.ca/search?q=GM+Bolt+specifications&rlz=1C1CHBF_enCA690CA690&oq=GM+Bolt+specifications&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2.6499j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[xiii] https://www.baierltoyota.com/blog/2018-toyota-yaris-engine-specs-and-gas-mileage/

GAIA Ozone - good news, bad news and doubts

It has been a long, long time since the Ozone Layer was of interest to the media but it is back as front page news.

“Earth’s ozone layer on the rebound, UN report finds” (G&M, Nov 6, 2018, A1, A7) reports that the ozone layer near the Arctic should be fully healed and closed by 2030s and the much larger hole by the Antarctic will close by 2060s.

The ozone layer protects us and the entire planet’s ecosystem from excessive Sun ultraviolet B (UV B) radiation: which causes human sunburns and can lead to skin cancer.

That’s the good news part.

But closings the ozone layer holes has a down side: the holes allow airborne carbon and other greenhouse gases to safely escape – thereby slowing Global Warming,

A catch-22 for sure.

Other facts mentioned in the article (A7): 

• ·       The ozone layer is some 40 km thick and starts 10 km above the planet’s surface.
• ·       Both holes are seasonal: expanding during their respective winter-spring seasons and closing (fully or partially) thereafter.
• ·        In 2018, the South Pole hole peaked at 24.8 million square kilometres.  This is 16% less than the 2006 peak.

For a better understanding (See Wikipedia “Ozone layer” and “Ozone depletion”, and citations.)

• ·       The term 'ozone hole' is catchy but inaccurate.  It refers to any section of the stratosphere where the level of ozone (O3) has been noticeably reduced or 'thinned out'.

•        90% of all O3 is found in the stratosphere[i] between 10km and 50 km above ground[ii]

•      Ozone ( O3) is created mostly at the Equator by the breakdown of normal oxygen (O2) as it absorbs the Sun’s dangerous UV C (100 – 240 nm) rays.

       Thereafter, the swirl of atmosphere winds distribute the ozone upward  and downward to cover the planet.

•  O3 constitutes no more than 0.3 ppm of the entire atmosphere (0.000003) and, even before the 1970s,  was under 10 ppm (0.00001) of the atmosphere layer that bear’s its name: the Ozone Layer.

• The Ozone Layer is, in fact, nearly all standard 02 oxygen and abundant N2 nitrogen with traces of other gases -- which along with O3 account for less than 1% of the atmosphere.                     

Nitrogen is 78% of the entire atmosphere and Oxogen (O2) 21%

·       O2 is the normal state of Oxygen and O3 (which is highly unstable) is created only when the Sun’s ultraviolet UV C rays (100 – 240 nm) break up O2  molecules. The free O atoms either reunite to make O2 or a loose O occasionally and rarely latches onto an existing O2 to create O3 ozone. (Hence the miniscule O3 figures.)

• O3 in turn breaks down to an O2 molecule and a free floating O atom when    struck by UV B (240 - 315 nm) rays.

The above, simple, two-stage cycle then begins again.

• O3 is the only atmospheric gas that is known to absorb UV B (240-315 nm) and is said to eliminate 97% to 99% of UV B rays from the Sun.

• UV B rays cause sunburns, cataracts, and skin cancers, but also allow the skin to manufacture Vitamin D – essential for health bones.

•  Compounds used in industry, agriculture and consumer products that are now known to rise to the Ozone Layer and which --as they break up blocking UV rays  -- release atoms that reduce the O3 production cycle, have been banned or substantially reduced.  The U.S.A. banned CFCs in 1978 and international agreements beginning with the 1987 Montreal Protocol have led to worldwide reduction of ODS (Ozone Depleting Substances): namely, CFCs, halons, bromides, hydroxides, nitrogens and chlorides[iii].

More recent data - to 2018 -- shows even further reductions in Ozone depleting chemicals[iv].

• NASA has been tracking the Arctic and Antarctic ozone ‘holes’ since 1979 and their videos are readily available at https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/multimedia/index.html.

•  Currently, the north ‘hole’ is tiny and present only a few days a year.  The south ‘hole’ is huge, covering all of Antarctica, and lasts for months.

• There are 4 different types of UV rays of which 3 have dangerous consequences to animal and plant life on Earth: 

1.    Deadly VUV (Vacuum UV) ( 10 – 100 nm) is blocked totally by super abundant Nitrogen: first in the Ionosphere and thereafter in the Mesosphere[v]
 

2.    Deadly UV C (100 – 240 nm) is blocked totally by abundant Oxygen in the Stratosphere and Ozone Layer.

3.    UV B (240 – 315 nm) is mostly blocked in the Ozone Layer by O3. Excessive exposure leads to sunburns, cataracts and skin cancers.

4.    UV A (315 – 400  nm) penetrates fully into the earth and is absorbed by all plant and animal life. It is the source of ‘tans’ and causes skin aging over decades.

So O3 and its filtration of UV B rays is only one of 3 essential ‘filtration steps’, with abundant Nitrogen and Oxygen doing most of the protective work.

Observations and doubts:

1.    The ozone ‘holes’ disappear for large parts of each year and then expand seasonally. 

These modulations are recognized as being directly related to our cold vs hot seasons, sunlight hours and regular wind patterns.

However, El Nino and La Nina seasonal changes to water temperatures off of Peru have major effects on wind and temperature and rainfall patterns throughout the world, so their ‘natural fluctuations’ need to be taken into account.[vi]

       2.     Other ‘natural’ factors that have only recently been recognized are:

i)                Normal Stratospheric clouds over Antarctica significantly reduce O3 during the early spring.

ii)               Volcano activity - with direct emissions of gases and particle matter -affect the stratosphere and Ozone layer (O3 levels).

         These spew into the atmosphere and even Ozone Layer massive amounts of bromine, chlorine, hydrogen chloride, sulphur dioxide, carbon dioxide and extensive ash particles.

Eruptions such as U.S. Mount St, Helens in 1980, the Philipine’s Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, and Antarctic’s own volcanic Deception Island eruption in 1970 and the recent 2018 Mt Erebus eruption.  There are some 1500 volcanoes in the planet surface and hundreds more active under the oceans[vii]. Some 50 surface volcanoes erupt each year!

In 2018 alone, “Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano provided a spectacular demonstration of nature’s power, as earthquakes, eruptions, and lava flows took place and fissures developed from May through August, forcing evacuations and destroying hundreds of homes. But Kilauea was not alone—out of an estimated 1,500 active volcanoes, 50 or so erupt every year, spewing steam, ash, toxic gases, and lava. In 2018, other erupting volcanoes included the Fuego volcano in Guatemala; Shinmoedake peak in Japan; Mount Sinabung , Mount Agung, and Anak Krakatau (“Child of Krakatoa”) in Indonesia; Piton de la Fournaise on Réunion Island; Mount Etna in Italy; Villarrica in Chile; the Mayon volcano in the Philippines, and more. Collected below are scenes from the wide variety of volcanic activity on Earth over the past year.”[viii]

http://eschooltoday.com/ozone-depletion/how-volcanoes-affect-ozone-levels.html

Additional ‘natural’, sudden events that scientists do not fully take into account and which necessitate massive ‘rebuilding’ –which would be counted as ‘human activity’  in their calculations are:

iii)             Widespread, massive wildfires which rage for months: such as those that raged across large sections of North America in the last 3 years. These fires not only produce a massive loss of trees and release carbon and other gases but also destroy human habitations and communities – which then need to be rebuilt.  Cases in Point: Fort McMurry Alberta, 2016[ix], British Columbia 2017 and 2018[x], California, 2018[xi]

iv)             Earthquakes which demolish homes and buildings and roads: creating and releasing dust and debris and noxious gases into the atmosphere while simultaneously necessitating replacement with more cutting of trees, and making of more cement and more steel and more glass and more asphalt. Japan alone has had 2 super Earthquakes in urban areas that literally leveled cities: 1923 = Tokyo and Kobe in 1995[xii].

v)               Similarly, hurricanes, cyclones, tornadoes, Monsoon season and other flooding – all of which require ‘rebuilding’ and duplication with their related effects on the atmosphere.

Each of these sudden ‘natural;’ events trigger the additional large scale human activity of ‘rebuilding’.  To simply count such rebuilding into ‘human activity’ numbers is unfair and a massive blind spot.

vi)             The Sun and its 11 year solar storm cycle with surprise super flare ups affect the Earth’s O3 levels for days and up to months.[xiii] Massive impacts on the Earth occurred in March 1989, July 2000, April 2001, October 2003  and most recently in September 2017[xiv]. 

Such extra-terrestrial ‘natural’ forces also need to be taken into account.

Research on Greenland ice cores has confirmed that the September 1859 – yes – mid-19^th century solar flare up was the worst in the last 500 years and released 6.5 times more than any solar flare up of the 20^th century[xv].

“The protons ionised nitrogen and oxygen molecules in the atmosphere, which then formed nitrogen oxides. The nitrogen oxides in turn reacted with ozone – a molecule made up of three oxygen atoms, breaking it into oxygen molecules and atomic oxygen.

This breakdown caused global atmospheric ozone levels to {immediately] drop by 5%.  In comparison, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other chemicals have depleted the levels by about 3% in recent years.”[xvi]

Finally, some doubts:

1.    It seems impossible that so scarce a molecule as O3 (less than 10 for every 1,000,000 molecules in the stratosphere) can block over 96% of the Sun’s continuous flow of UV B rays.   The numbers don’t add up.  Think needle in a haystack!   

2.    If the north ‘hole’ is almost closed fully and only the Antarctic ‘hole’ is large, how can humans be responsible?

The overwhelming bulk of human population and especially the technology for the industrial production of CFCs and other O3 harming compounds is nearly all Northern Hemisphere.

As is clear from any world map, the U.S.A., Europe, Russia, China, India and most of Africa are all above the Equator and its northward winds.

Only Australia, New Zealand, lower Africa and South America are below the Equator, and both their population numbers and industrialization are nowhere near that of the northern hemisphere.

Yet the North Pole ‘hole’ is almost gone while the Antarctic O3 thinning is still huge.

Put simply, if human industrial, agricultural and consumer activities were to blame, the size and duration of the two ozone holes should be reversed.

3.    Which UV rays are involved in breaking down CFCs, bromides and other ODS in the stratosphere/ozone layer?  

*** I cannot find any internet information on this important point. 

4.    Human activities are stated to produce 30% of bromides in the atmosphere and these interfere with O3 ozone layer levels[xvii]. In fact, bromine is claimed to be 40 to 100 times more destructive of O3 than chlorine[xviii]

Q: Does none of the 70% of bromides produced and emitted into the atmosphere ‘naturally’ from salt seas, salt beds and the crust of the earth[xix]    not also rise to the ozone layer and affect O3 levels?

      
One can ask the same question regarding all the ODS ‘ozone harmful  chemicals’ (chlorine, hydroxides, nitrogens, etc,) as they all occur in nature.

In conclusion,

If we, in trying to better human life and raise standards of living have made ‘inadvertent’ mistakes that need correcting, we learn and take action.

But underestimating the natural forces of the planet and Gaia’s rhythms and cycles - and ‘burps’  – and those of the Sun  is unfair and foolish.

We are the human ant.

To quote NASA:  “As scientists race to better understand humankind’s role in ozone loss, they must first be able to tease out the natural causes.[xx]”

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[i] https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/assessments/ozone/2010/twentyquestions/Q1.pdf

[ii] Ibid.

[iii] http://www.theozonehole.com/odcs.htm

[iv] https://ourworldindata.org/ozone-layer

[v] http://butane.chem.uiuc.edu/pshapley/GenChem2/A2/1.html

[vi] https://climate.ncsu.edu/edu/ElNino and   https://climate.ncsu.edu/edu/LaNina

[vii] https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-many-active-volcanoes-are-there-earth?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products

[viii] https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2018/12/photos-2018-the-year-in-volcanic-activity/578086/

[ix] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Fort_McMurray_wildfire

[x] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-wildfires-cost-insurers-127-million-1.4309611 and https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/state-emergency-bc-wildfires-1.4803546

[xi] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_wildfires

[xii]  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1923_Great_Kant%C5%8D_earthquake and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Hanshin_earthquake

[xiii] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/08/010802080620.htm

[xiv] ibid., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_storms;  https://www.space.com/38057-sun-unleashes-decades-strongest-solar-flare.html

[xv] https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11456-solar-superflare-shredded-earths-ozone/

[xvi] Ibid.

[xvii] https://www.livescience.com/32072-bromine.html

[xviii] Ibid.

[xix] https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/bromine/basics/facts.asp

[xx] https://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/violent_sun.html