CH4 - METHANE
CH4
is considered a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2 and variously cited as
“30 times stronger than CO2”[i].
“80 times more potentate over a 20 year period”[ii] ,
“84-87 times more powerful over 20 years”[iii]
and even “traps around 120 times as much heat”[iv]
Whatever
number one chooses from the above, CH4 is truly far more effective at
reflecting back heat (which is trying to escape from the Earth, e.g., as the
planet cools at night) compared to CO2.
The
reason is simple. CO2 is just three (3)
atoms and they line up in a straight line while CH4 has five (5) atoms and they
form a pinwheel with carbon in the centre. Consequently when infrared (heat)
waves try to leave the earth’s surface and return to outer space, CH4’s larger,
multi-armed molecule tends to block more infrared waves, becomes more
‘excited’, vibrates more and then
releases this extra energy back to Earth as heat.[v]
The
good news -- now acknowledged -- is that unlike CO2 – which can last for many
centuries in the atmosphere,[vi]
CH4 brakes up far more quickly in the atmosphere or otherwise returns to the
ground within 10 years compared to 100+ years for any given CO2 molecule.
According
to the Encyclopedia Britannica, CH4 remains in the atmosphere “roughly 10
years, compared with hundreds of years for CO2.[vii]
And this calculation is now generally accepted, though often CH4 critics
like to compare its impact to CO2 over the latter’s 100 years minimum duration
– reducing the CH4 strength to 28 times down from 120 times.[viii]
As well, one
needs to consider the relative abundance of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere.
As of 2023, according to Wikipedia, “dry air
contains 78.08% nitrogen, 20.95% oxygen, 0.93% argon, 0.04% carbon dioxide, and small amounts
of other gases among which is CH4. [ix]
The chart below is more precise. [x]
While
nearly the entire atmosphere is Nitrogen (N2) at 78% and Oxygen (O2) at 21%,
all other gases account for just a minuscule 1%!
Of
this tiny 1%, just over 1/3 (0.037%) is CO2.
As for methane, it is a microscopic
0.00015% and has to be counted in “parts per billion”!
Yes,
CH4 is just 15 pars per 1,000,000,000 molecules of air!
The real greenhouse
Climate Heat generator
Meanwhile,
no one focuses on the single most powerful and abundant greenhouse gas – WATER VAPOUR (H20).
All the above atmosphere component percentage calculations are for “dry air”.
But
water vapour (H2O) accounts on average for 2%, and
rises in tropical, humid locations to 4%.[xi] The water vapour figure, according to
Emeritus Professor Rene Moreau, in fact rises to 5% and “it is
clear that the most important contribution to the greenhouse effect comes from
water (about 75%).”[xii]
It
is, in fact, broadly recognized as the planets most powerful and major
greenhouse gas![xiii]
So
why no outrage?
The
‘defense’ for not attacking H2O is that it is essential to all life on Earth,
and any H2O molecule that enters the atmosphere will drop back to Earth as
rain, snow or hail in an estimated span of just 9 days.[xiv]
But
the 9 day ‘drop cycle’ misses the key point that massive new water vapour is continuously
being generated by normal sun triggered evaporation from the oceans, rivers,
streams and even glaciers and mountain ice caps, and from even human and other
animal sweat.
During
hot periods, i.e., summer, far more water vapour rises from such sources than
during other seasons: increasing the Greenhouse Effect for months.
Now back to
CH4:
CH4
harmlessly returns to Earth through interaction with atmospheric OH
radicals converting the CH4 into water (H20) and some CO2[xv],
what scientists call ‘sinks’. And the overall ‘balance’ of emissions and sinks
in 2017 was calculated at close to equal (see
charts below).
There
is also a blinkered perspective on CH4 production among climate
scientists and activists.
Namely,
they care about or ‘target’ for reduction only the emissions of methane (CH4)
from human activity:
·
burning wood, coal, petroleum (i.e., home heating oil[xvi])
and natural gas for heating homes and
businesses, and cooking – though they are all supplied by the Earth.
·
petroleum in the form of gasoline and diesel for powering
vehicles for human travel and commercial trucks and tractor trailers. The
latter account for most of our food and goods distribution: for example in Canada,
trucks and tractor trailers account for 90% of all food and goods delivered
across the country, 80% of all food and goods imported from the USA and 60% of
all exports to the USA.[xvii]
·
And at present, all freight trains that move grain and other
bulk goods – and people -- across the country are diesel powered. (Yes,
electric battery powered trains are being tested[xviii]
but long distances are a major hurdle for battery systems. And the manufacture of such batteries from rare earths
mined from the ground is energy intensive and simply ‘moves’ the carbon
footprint and greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 and CH4) to ‘other locations’. A shell game at best.)
·
CH4 is produced by domesticated livestock via their farts, burps
and decomposing manure (see more below)
But
CH4 is also abundantly produced by microbial decomposition of fallen vegetation
from wetlands, forests, grasslands, oceans, etc. (See diagram below.)
Such
methane production is classified as ‘natural’ and so is essentially ignored by
activists.
And
then there is the lowly termite, a major CH4 producer accounting for 1% to
4% of all emissions as of a 2023 Harvard study. [xix]
Put
simply, no one speaks up about stopping or ‘reducing’ such CH4 production all
over every portion of the planet.
Such
extreme ‘natural’ CH4 sources: microbes to termites, are beyond reproach or any efforts
to reduce CH4 greenhouse gas production -- because they are ‘natural’.
A
very one-sided approach and fixation.
Overall CH4
budget
More
importantly, an examination of the overall CH4 budget is illuminating.
CH4
(and all other Greenhouse gases) not only rises into the atmosphere, but also
‘fall back’ to the Earth to be absorbed – sequestered – in plants, soil and
oceans.
As
the chart below illustrates, according to climatologist calculations and
models, human activity generated in 2017 an estimated 363 units of CH4 compared
to ‘natural’ CH4 emissions of 233 units.
But
the planet’s ‘sinks’, i.e., natural systems that absorb CH4 and sequester it, absorbed
an estimated total of 571 units. Leaving
the net increase in 2017 as a mere 25 units or 4%.
Based
on the 2017 data, at a 4% annual net increase, by 2025 methane numbers will
rise from an extra 25 units to 31.6. A
total cumulative increase of 6.6 units -- which would not substantially change
CH4’s miniscule ‘parts per billion’ factor.
Equally
useful and encouraging is the chart below which compares the change in the
global methane budget between 2008 and 2017.
It
shows that methane from human activity dropped slightly from 334 units
to 328 units as fossil fuel use dropped and that CH4 from ‘natural’ sources –
specifically wetlands, jumped dramatically by a 32 unit increase while other
‘natural’ sources crashed and dropped from 222 units to a mere 37.
The
net overall outcome was a mere increase of 20 units.
So,
while human activity numbers dropped slightly, the numbers from ‘nature’
fluctuated radically with some shooting up and others falling precipitately:
the vagaries
and fluctuations of ‘nature’.
The above overall methane budget analysis
chart (2007) is also helpful.
It shows that ‘natural’ sources
of atmospheric methane include the oceans and ocean hydrates (i.e., ocean bed
crystals of CH4 mixed with H2O (water)), geological sources such as volcanoes
and hot springs,[xx]
termites, wildfires, wild animals (i.e., farts, burps and manure decomposition)
and most importantly, wetlands: whose emissions are so massive that fly up well
beyond the chart: to a massive 231 units or an additional 1 1/3 times higher
the size of the chart which maxes out at 100 units.
On the human side, there are the
usual: coal, petroleum, natural gas, wood and livestock, with a surprising
major contribution from rice paddies.
As rice is the main dietary
staple of Southeast Asia from India to Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and
Cambodia, and all the way through China. the Koreas to Japan, and a major
dietary element across Africa and Latin America, it feeds well over half of
the world’s population.[xxi]
A closer examination of the chart
and its use of two colours (red and gold) is also very instructive.
RED marks the minimum of CH4
released and GOLD the ‘potential maximum’.
That is, the GOLD part of each
bar is variable and speculative.
So, if one only looks at the RED
bar parts, one finds that human sources are, yes, more than the ‘natural’
sources: 240 vs 150, but not the horrendous increase one sees by looking at the
‘full’ bars alone. Including visually manipulating and underestimating
the wetlands massive 231 total.
Reducing
methane production:
Scientists
have come up with various ways to reduce rice patty CH4 release and also that
from ruminant livestock: especially cows, and companies and farmers are slowly
incorporating these into their practices.
But
there is no effort to reduce the ‘natural’ sources.
No
action on termites, wild animals or especially wetlands – which are being
expanded everywhere as they shelter coastal cities from devastating hurricanes
and flooding, such as hurricane Katrina and the destruction it left across the
Caribbean and southern USA such as New Orleans, etc.[xxii]
LIVESTOCK and
ANIMAL HUSBANDRY
Grain crops:
wheat, barley, oats, spelt, rye and quinoa, and corn all require three (3)
conditions to grow successful large, surplus harvests:
·
Firstly, flat land, I.e. plains free of large
rock formations and steep slopes -- so cattle drawn ploughs or modern tractors
and tillers could till the soil.
·
Secondly , soil rich in nutrients to
allow grain grasses to grow to 4 ft or even 5 ft high[xxiii]
and sprout abundant grain heads. Corn stalks 5 to 6 ft high [xxiv]
and quinoa stalks from 4 to 8 ft high[xxv].
·
Thirdly, abundant, timely water
during the growing stages to facilitate the above tall plant growth. In
river areas, canals and water ways can be cut to feed fresh (unsalted)
water to adjoining crop fields. And in Egypt, the great Nile floods
adjoining fields 3 to more times a year as well[xxvi].
In comparison, animal
husbandry, i.e. raising cattle, sheep, goats, and other domesticated
animals such as Lapland reindeer, camels and horses/donkeys, can be
abundantly successful with far less ideal conditions. (And so too raising pigs
and chickens.)
Such animals only
need low growing grass and are so mobile that they can move from one grass area
to another as needed. Rocky outcrops and mountain slopes (or desert dunes
for camels) are not an issue as their feet and hooves easily handle such
terrain.
As for water,
animals need more water than cereal crops: by a factor of 20[xxvii],
but unlike cereals and other crops, this watering is not ‘time dependent’ and
can easily be met with nearby streams, rivers and wells.
The stories of
the Bible (as historic insights) are ancient testimony to these seminal
husbandry truths.
When severe
drought befell Canaan, Abraham migrated all his family and flocks to
Egypt's lush, Nile Delta (Gen.12:9-16) and so did Jacob and his entire clan
decades later (Gen. 40: 6, 34 and 41: 3-4).
And after many
years, Abraham and his nephew Lot separated once their herds became too large
for one area (Gen, 13: 6-11).
The story of
Joseph attests to herd relocation and the seasonal need to find 'greener
pastures' as Joseph's brothers had moved their family herds well over a day's
journey from their home base (Gen. 37: 12 -17).
And Moses
was herding sheep: to graze deep in the wilderness near Mount Sinai, where
and when he saw the burning bush (Exod.
3: 1).
Herds of cattle
and flocks of sheep and goats can even get their needed daily drinking
water via dug wells and hand filled water troughs as noted three times
in the Bible stories of Eliezer, Jacob and Moses (Gen. 24: 9-20; Gen. 9:
1-10: Exod. 2:15-17) .
A practiced used
to this day by the Maassai of Africa[xxviii].
Put simply,
animal husbandry goes back to the earliest of human times and continues to
abound today for it is far less demanding of terrain and soil, and timely
rain/river water, and is so mobile compared to stationary crop agriculture.
A flexibility
that has let humans survive and thrive for millennia, enjoying the benefits of
food: meat, milk, cheese, butter, yogurt, and clothing and other necessities
made from animal hides to wool and goat and camel hair.
As for the
concern that these domesticated animals product large amounts of methane through their farts, burps and decomposing
manure, this is very true (see charts below).
But two simple
facts are being ignored.
Firstly, all
animals on the planet release methane in the above ways: from humans to
birds to termites to ants, bees and wasps[xxix].
From wildebeest to gazelles to giraffes to zebras to lions. From wild deer, elk
and caribou to buffalos, bison and yaks. From foxes and wolves and coyotes to
bears: brown, black and polar. From lemurs to chimpanzees to gorillas to panda
bears. And every flying bird as well:
including the over 460 endangered species listed in Wikipedia as of 2019.[xxx]
And if one
compares today's methane CH4 output of domesticated animals versus that of
animals in the wild (seer diagram, below), yes, certainly todays billions of
livestock far out-produce today’s wild animals.
But one must also
remember that in the past, those wild animals roamed the surface of the
earth and flew its skies in the multi-billions.
Bison/buffalo
herds some 300 years ago alone roamed central North America in the multi-millions[xxxi]:
burping and farting and leaving CH4 filled dung for the earth’s microbes to
quickly release. As did elk and deer and moose which alone are estimated to
have amounted to 1 billion![xxxii]
And as for
Africa, the herds of wild animals were far, far greater than today -- filling
the air with their methane exhaust and the ground with their poop piles.
Remember, an
adult elephant produces up to 100 kg of poop a day![xxxiii] And
each adult elephant’s farts emit the same amount of CH4 as 120 cows or 28,500
people.[xxxiv]
So while todays domesticated
animal methane output far exceeds those of today’s animals in the wild, previously,
with massively abundant wild creatures, their ‘natural’ CH4 output would have
been, in all likelihood, equal to or greater than those of today’s domesticated
animals.
In other words,
the overall methane output by animals has probably been the same for millennia.
And replacing
wild animal numbers with domesticated, beneficial equivalents is not a
negative, but a positive good.
Conclusion
re: animal husbandry
Animal husbandry is the oldest form of
human ‘farming’ and has fed, clothed and sheltered the world’s populations for
millennia.
The substantial amount of methane gas released into the atmosphere by
domesticated animal farts and burps and manure -- in reality -- is not a
sudden spike (since the Industrial Revolution to Modern Times), but merely a switch
over from predominantly wild animal life to domestic animals as its
source.
In reality, a more or less neutral
transformation.
Overall Conclusion
re: CH4
The
role of CH4 and especially human activity in its production re: Global Warming,
is highly questionable.
Arguments
and data used in targeting human CH4 production is highly selective and relies
on half-truths and an incomplete picture.
Nature’s
CH4 release via microbes, tiny termites and other insects, etc. is still little
understood and tracked, and past enormous wild animal methane production is
ignored.
And
the relatively quick decomposition of CH4 in the atmosphere into mostly water
vapour (H20) and some CO2 is too often ‘hidden’ in the discussion.
The
mantra seems to be that humans should freeze and die until so-called
renewable energy sources: electricity from hydro, nuclear, sporadic wind and
sporadic solar become available everywhere (in theory) rather than use the ‘gifts’
the Earth supplies in wood, coal, petroleum or natural gasl;and to only walk/run/bike
for transportation until electric vehicles become universally available: all in
the name of saving the planet.
And,
of course, we should eliminate animal husbandry and all be only organic
vegetarians – to save the planet.
This
mindset constitutes a radical replacement of 5000 plus years of human history,
survival and progress.
A
mindset that is a misguided, unjustified attack on minimal atmospheric CH4 and
especially animal husbandry.
[xii] Overview of the physics of the atmospheric greenhouse
effect - Encyclopedia of the Environment (encyclopedie-environnement.org)
[xiii]
http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall16/atmo336/lectures/sec1/composition.html#:~:text=Water%20vapor%20is%20literally%20individual,0%25%20in%20cold%20polar%20regions.
[xiv] https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-weather-works/water-cycle#:~:text=A%20drop%20of%20water%20may,before%20falling%20back%20to%20Earth.
[xix] https://davieslab.oeb.harvard.edu/publications/species-level-termite-methane-production-rates#:~:text=During%20the%20process%20of%20lignocellulose%20digestion%2C%20the%20symbiotic,CH4%20production%20rate%20per%20unit%20of%20termite%20biomass
[xxii]
Hurricane Katrina - Wikipedia and Restoring Wetlands – How to Get Started on Your Land
(growingwithnature.org)
[xxiii][xxiii]
For wheat, How
to Grow & Harvest Wheat on a Small Scale. - The Art of Doing Stuff ; for barley,
how
tall does barley grow - Search (bing.com) ; for oats, how
high deoes oats grow - Search (bing.com),; for rye, how
high deoes rye grow - Search (bing.com)
[xxvi]
Flooding of the
Nile - Wikipedia The yearly monsoon
season of May to August inundates the Ethiopian mountains and that
precipitation flows downstream into the tributes of the Nile leading to
flooding waves and peaks between July and October.
[xxvii]
See re livestock Livestock
Water Requirements — Publications (ndsu.edu)
[xxxi]
Estimates carried out in 2010 suggested current bison numbers between 400,000
and 500,00. American bison - Wikipedia
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